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Impacts of COVID-19 on global value chains

Author

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  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu
  • Mukunoki, Hiroshi

Abstract

We investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on global value chains by examining bilateral trade in finished machinery products from January to June in both 2019 and 2020. We use the numbers of COVID¬ 19 cases and deaths as measures of the impact of the pandemic. Specifically, we investigate how these impacts affect value chains in three scenarios—countries that import finished machinery products, countries that export finished machinery products, and countries that export machinery parts to countries exporting finished machinery products—to assess the impacts on demand, output, and supply chain effects, respectively. In our analysis, the largest negative impacts were from supply chain effects, followed by output effects. In contrast, we did not find significant impacts from demand effects. We also found that output effects are not so strong in intra-Asian trade compared with trade in other regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2020. "Impacts of COVID-19 on global value chains," IDE Discussion Papers 797, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper797
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    Cited by:

    1. Suhas Jadhav & Ishita Ghosh, 2024. "Future Prospects of the Gravity Model of Trade: A Bibliometric Review (1993–2021)," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(1), pages 26-61, February.
    2. Keita Oikawa & Yasuyuki Todo & Masahito Ambashi & Fukunari Kimura & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "Economic Policies to take Advantage of the Vigorous Private Dynamism in AMS and India during the COVID-19 Crisis," Working Papers PB-2021-02, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Ando, Mitsuyo & Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on trade in services," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Sebestyén, Tamás & Braun, Erik, 2025. "Szerkezeti változások és függőségek - Magyarország helyzete a globális értékláncokban [Structural change and dependencies: the position of the Hungarian economy in global value chains]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 805-841.
    5. Umezaki,So & Uemura,Jinichi, 2023. "Air and maritime transport connectivity during Covid-19 pandemic," IDE Discussion Papers 886, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    6. Adrian Tudor Tudorache & Luminița Nicolescu, 2023. "Insights about the Effects of COVID-19 on International Trade during the Main Pandemic Years in Romania and Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    7. Yasuyuki Todo & Keita Oikawa & Masahito Ambashi & Fukunari Kimura & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "Robustness and Resilience of Supply Chains During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from a Questionnaire Survey on the Supply Chain Links of Firms in ASEAN and India," Working Papers DP-2021-40, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    8. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Keita Oikawa & Yasuyuki Todo & Masahito Ambashi & Fukunari Kimura & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Business Activities and Supply Chains in the ASEAN Member States and India," Working Papers DP-2021-17, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    10. Miguel Cardoso & Brandon Malloy, 2021. "Impact of the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Trade between Canada and the United States," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 47(4), pages 554-572, December.
    11. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2023. "Japan's Dependence on China in Supply Chains: Diversion of Imports from China to ASEAN Countries," IDE Discussion Papers 897, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    12. Alvaro Espitia & Aaditya Mattoo & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Deborah Winkler, 2022. "Pandemic trade: COVID‐19, remote work and global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 561-589, February.
    13. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:special3:p:905-913 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Hyun-Hoon, Lee & Cyn-Young, Park, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on foreign direct investment," IDE Discussion Papers 831, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    16. Allan Webster & Sangeeta Khorana & Francesco Pastore, 2021. "The labour market impact of COVID-19: early evidence for a sample of enterprises from Southern Europe," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(4), pages 1054-1082, November.
    17. Xuepeng Liu & Emanuel Ornelas & Huimin Shi, 2022. "The trade impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3751-3779, December.
    18. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Kohei Imai, 2022. "Who sends me face masks? Evidence for the impacts of COVID‐19 on international trade in medical goods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 365-385, February.
    19. Tudorache Adrian Tudor, 2023. "The Influence of COVID-19 on Exports and Imports European Cases during 2020-2021," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 330-338, July.
    20. Khorana, Sangeeta & Escaith, Hubert & Ali, Salamat & Kumari, Sushma & Do, Quynh, 2022. "The changing contours of global value chains post-COVID: Evidence from the Commonwealth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 75-86.
    21. Oudom Hean & Nattanicha Chairassamee, 2021. "Household consumption expenditure in Thailand during the first COVID-19 lockdown," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 28(2), pages 1-37, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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