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Impact of the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Trade between Canada and the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Cardoso
  • Brandon Malloy

Abstract

We examine how the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected trade between Canada and the United States, using a novel dataset on monthly bilateral trade flows between Canadian provinces and US states merged with COVID-19 health data. Our results show that a one-standard-deviation increase in COVID-19 severity (case levels, hospitalizations, deaths) in a Canadian province leads to a 3.1 percent to 4.9 percent fall in exports and a 6.7 percent to 9.1 percent fall in imports. Decomposing our analysis by industry, we determine that trade in the manufacturing industry was most negatively affected by the pandemic, and the agriculture industry had the least disruption to trade flows. Our descriptive evidence suggests that lockdowns may also have reduced Canadian exports and imports. However, although our regression coefficients are consistent with that finding, they are not statistically significant, perhaps because of the lack of variation as a result of similar timing in the imposition of restrictions across provinces.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Cardoso & Brandon Malloy, 2021. "Impact of the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Trade between Canada and the United States," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 47(4), pages 554-572, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:47:y:2021:i:4:p:554-572
    DOI: 10.3138/cpp.2021-028
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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Frenette, 2023. "The changing nature of work since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic and Social Reports 202300700003e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch.
    2. Miguel Cardoso & Brandon Malloy, 2024. "Spillovers from government policy during a crisis: Evidence from international trade during COVID‐19 lockdowns," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 1238-1269, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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