The changing nature of work since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic

Before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid advances in automation and artificial intelligence were often featured in discussions around the changing nature of work. The concern, which is still present today, centred around the possibility that machines and robots could perform certain tasks more efficiently than humans, possibly resulting in rapid job transformation and potential disruptions. At the same time, increased globalization and industrial shifts may have further altered the type of tasks performed in the workplace. Previous work found that while the workforce was moving away from jobs involving routine, manual tasks and moving toward those involving non-routine, cognitive tasks, changes were moderate and very steady between 1987 and 2018 (Frank et al. 2021). This pace could have allowed workers time to adjust to the slowly evolving realities of the changing workplace, either by retraining or through demographic forces (i.e., attrition of routine, manual jobs as older workers retire). The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns may have accelerated these trends for several reasons. On the supply (worker) side, the lockdowns created many economic and health concerns for affected workers, primarily those who had close contact with the public or co-workers. This may have encouraged some workers to seek employment with less human contact. On the demand (employer) side, some businesses may have sought to make their production and delivery processes more resilient to future lockdowns by investing in automation technology, while entire industries may have expanded or contracted to match new market conditions. This article finds that some of the long-term trends in the nature of work present before the onset of the pandemic not only continued during the pandemic, but they also accelerated. In particular, the increase in the share of employed individuals in managerial, professional and technical occupations (non-routine, cognitive tasks) registered during the pandemic was higher than in the previous three decades. While the increases in non-routine, cognitive jobs registered during the pandemic were similar for men and women, the corresponding declines in other types of jobs were not. For men, most of the increase in managerial, professional and technical occupations was accompanied by important declines in production, craft, repair and operative occupations (routine, manual tasks) and service occupations (non-routine, manual tasks). For women, most of the increase in managerial, professional and technical occupations was accompanied by a decline in service occupations. For men and women, the decline in service occupations was particularly notable, especially given that the share of service jobs actually increased moderately during the three decades prior to the pandemic. For men, the decline in production, craft, repair and operative occupations represented a modest acceleration of the long-term gradual decline established before the pandemic. Finally, the increase in managerial, professional and technical occupations and the decline in service occupations were considerably more pronounced among younger workers (aged 25 to 34 years) compared with older workers (aged 45 to 54 years). Changing occupations may have required training in certain cases, and government supports were available to help displaced workers pursue this route if they chose.