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Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses

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  • Javier Barbero
  • Juan José de Lucio
  • Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade flows using a state-of-the-art gravity model of trade. Using the monthly trade data of 68 countries exporting across 222 destinations between January 2019 and October 2020, our results are threefold. First, we find a greater negative impact of COVID-19 on bilateral trade for those countries that were members of regional trade agreements before the pandemic. Second, we find that the impact of COVID-19 is negative and significant when we consider indicators related to governmental actions. Finally, this negative effect is more intense when exporter and importer country share identical income levels. In the latter case, the highest negative impact is found for exports between high-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Barbero & Juan José de Lucio & Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo, 2021. "Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0258356
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258356
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Lizbeth Salgado-Conrado & Carlos Álvarez-Macías & Laura-Andrea Pérez-García & Rodrigo Loera-Palomo, 2024. "COVID-19 Impacts on Mexican Power Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Arūnas Burinskas & Viktorija Cohen & Jolanta Droždz, 2023. "Supply Chain Interconnectedness in Times of Crises: A Gravity Model with DiD Analysis of COVID-19 Effects on Central and Eastern European Trade," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Jamiu Olamilekan Badmus & Sodiq Olaide Bisiriyu & Oluwadamilola Samuel Alawode, 2022. "Does COVID-19 shock endanger the flows of FDI in OECD? Empirical evidence based on AMG panel estimator," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Amjad Masood & Junaid Ahmed & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2022. "Gravity of Covid-19," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(1), pages 60-68.
      • Masood, Amjad & Ahmed, Junaid & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2021. "Gravity of Covid-19," MPRA Paper 109651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ahn, Soojung & Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "COVID-19 Trade Actions and Their Impact on the Agricultural and Food Sector," 2023 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2023, New Orleans, Louisiana 316789, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Sangeeta Khorana & Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso & Salamat Ali, 2023. "An anatomy of the impact of COVID‐19 on the global and intra‐Commonwealth trade in goods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 550-579, May.
    8. Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Giorgio Rizzini, 2022. "The effect of the pandemic on complex socio-economic systems: community detection induced by communicability," Papers 2201.12618, arXiv.org.
    9. Orhan Cengiz & Müge Manga, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1195-1219, October.
    10. Soojung Ahn & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 trade measures on agricultural and food trade," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 911-927, June.
    11. Ahn, Soojung & Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "COVID-19 Trade Actions and Their Impact on the Agricultural and Food Sector," 2022 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting (Virtual), January 7-9, 2022 316789, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Taeil Kim & Sunghwa Park & Hanna Kim & Janghan Kwon, 2023. "Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on International Trade: Cases of Major Countries Using the SUR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2022. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and European Trade Flows: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9848, CESifo.
    14. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of structural economic vulnerability on the participation in international trade," EconStor Preprints 262004, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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