IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v31y2023i2p550-579.html

An anatomy of the impact of COVID‐19 on the global and intra‐Commonwealth trade in goods

Author

Listed:
  • Sangeeta Khorana
  • Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso
  • Salamat Ali

Abstract

This article employs gravity modeling to examine the effect of COVID‐19 on global and intra‐Commonwealth trade. It uses bilateral monthly exports, number of COVID‐19 cases and deaths and the stringency of measures. The main novelty is the use of price indices as proxies for multilateral resistance terms, which allow us to identify, supply, and demand effects of COVID‐19 on bilateral trade. The incidence of COVID‐19 impacts Commonwealth trade flows, the effect varies with the development level. High numbers of COVID‐19 cases, including deaths, in low‐income importers reduced Commonwealth exports unlike high‐income importers that show higher exports. The incidence of COVID in an exporters' neighbouring countries impacted trade and restrictions in high‐income countries increased Commonwealth trade. Short‐term trends project a negative change in both exports and imports of Commonwealth countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Sangeeta Khorana & Inmaculada Martínez‐Zarzoso & Salamat Ali, 2023. "An anatomy of the impact of COVID‐19 on the global and intra‐Commonwealth trade in goods," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 550-579, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:31:y:2023:i:2:p:550-579
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12637
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12637
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/roie.12637?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allan Webster & Sangeeta Khorana & Francesco Pastore, 2021. "The labour market impact of COVID-19: early evidence for a sample of enterprises from Southern Europe," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(4), pages 1054-1082, November.
    2. Erginbay Ugurlu & Irena Jindřichovská, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 on International Trade among the Visegrad Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    3. Javier Barbero & Juan José de Lucio & Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo, 2021. "Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Beata Javorcik, 2020. "Reshaping of global supply chains will take place, but it will not happen fast," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 321-325, October.
    5. Egger, Peter H. & Nigai, Sergey, 2015. "Structural gravity with dummies only: Constrained ANOVA-type estimation of gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 86-99.
    6. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Felicitas, Nowak-Lehmann D. & Horsewood, Nicholas, 2009. "Are regional trading agreements beneficial?: Static and dynamic panel gravity models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-65, March.
    7. Arita, Shawn & Grant, Jason & Sydow, Sharon & Beckman, Jayson, 2022. "Has global agricultural trade been resilient under coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings from an econometric assessment of 2020," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    8. Meier, Matthias & Pinto, Eugenio, 2024. "COVID-19 Supply Chain Disruptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    9. Egger, Peter & Nigai, Sergey, 2015. "Structural Gravity with Dummies Only," CEPR Discussion Papers 10427, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Oana Cristina Popovici & Vasile Alecsandru Strat, 2022. "An empirical analysis using panel data gravity models and scenario forecast simulations for the Romanian exports in the context of COVID-19," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 480-510, December.
    11. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
    12. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
    13. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    14. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Kohei Imai, 2022. "Who sends me face masks? Evidence for the impacts of COVID‐19 on international trade in medical goods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 365-385, February.
    15. Shawn Arita & Jason Grant & Sharon Sydow & Jayson Beckman, 2021. "Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient under COVID-19? Findings from an Econometric Assessment of 2020," NBER Chapters, in: Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Mitsuyo Ando & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2022. "Does the import diversity of inputs mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19 on global value chains?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 299-320, February.
    17. Arita, Shawn & Grant, Jason & Sydow, Sharon & Beckman, Jayson, 2021. "Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient Under Coronavirus (COVID-19)? Findings from an Econometric Assessment," Working Papers 311216, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    18. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Konstantins Beņkovskis & Jaanika Meriküll & Aurelija Proškute, 2025. "The Transmission of Trade Shocks Across Countries: Firm‐Level Evidence From the Covid‐19 Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(6), pages 1376-1404, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jia Chen Author-Name-First: Jia & Yongcheol Shin & Chaowen Zheng, 2023. "Dynamic Quantile Panel Data Models with Interactive Effects," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    2. Leticia Blázquez & Carmen Díaz‐Mora & Belén González‐Díaz, 2023. "Understanding digital services in GVCs: An extended gravity model through the lens of network analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(9), pages 2598-2623, September.
    3. Pamela Smith & Xiangwen Kong, 2022. "Intellectual property rights and trade: The exceptional case of GMOs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 763-811, March.
    4. Kox, Henk L.M. & Rojas Romasgosa, Hugo, 2019. "Gravity estimations with FDI bilateral data: Potential FDI effects of deep preferential trade agreements," MPRA Paper 96318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Luisa Kinzius & Alexander Sandkamp & Erdal Yalcin, 2019. "Trade protection and the role of non-tariff barriers," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 603-643, November.
    6. Sunil P. Dhoubhadel & William Ridley, 2025. "China's meat sector growth and U.S. grain and oilseed exports," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(1), pages 275-303, March.
    7. Amelie Guillin & Isabelle Rabaud & Chahir Zaki, 2023. "Does the depth of trade agreements matter for trade in services?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(12), pages 3616-3653, December.
    8. Jacopo Timini & Nicola Cortinovis & Fernando López Vicente, 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of trade agreements with labour provisions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2820-2853, September.
    9. Harald Oberhofer & Zhenyi Wang, 2025. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About EU Membership Trade Effects But Were Afraid to Ask," CESifo Working Paper Series 11823, CESifo.
    10. Mario Larch & Yoto V Yotov, 2025. "Deep Trade Agreements and FDI in Partial and General Equilibrium: A Structural Estimation Framework," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 281-307.
    11. Jayjit Roy, 2014. "On the robustness of the trade-inducing effects of trade agreements and currency unions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 253-304, August.
    12. Julia Spornberger, 2022. "EU integration and structural gravity: A comprehensive quantification of the border effect on trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 915-938, September.
    13. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto Yotov, 2020. "Gravity-model Estimation with Time-interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    14. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Economic sanctions and agricultural trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(4), pages 1477-1517, August.
    15. Marco Compagnoni & Marco Grazzi & Fabio Pieri & Chiara Tomasi, 2025. "Extended Producer Responsibility and Trade Flows in Waste: The Case of Batteries," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(1), pages 43-76, January.
    16. Whelsy Boungou & Francis Osei-Tutu & Amara Zongo, 2024. "Democracy and Intra-Africa Trade," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(1), pages 70-90, March.
    17. Lamonaca, Emilia & Seccia, Antonio & Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2023. "Climate cha(lle)nges in global wine production and trade patterns," MPRA Paper 119296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Sorgho, Zakaria, 2014. "RTAs’ Proliferation and Trade-diversion effects: Evidence of the “Spaghetti Bowl” Phenomenon," MPRA Paper 60503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Abdulkareem Alhassan & Cem Payaslioğlu, 2024. "Trade Diversion and Creation Effect of Free Trade Agreements in ASEAN: Do Institutions Matter?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 917-935, March.
    20. Henk L. M. Kox & Hugo Rojas‐Romagosa, 2020. "How trade and investment agreements affect bilateral foreign direct investment: Results from a structural gravity model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:31:y:2023:i:2:p:550-579. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.