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COVID-19 Supply Chain Disruptions

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  • Matthias Meier
  • Eugenio Pinto

Abstract

We study the effects of international supply chain disruptions on real economic activity and prices during the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that US sectors with a high exposure to intermediate goods imports from China contracted significantly and robustly more than other sectors. In particular, highly exposed sectors suffered larger declines in production, employment, imports, and exports. Moreover, input and output prices moved up relative to other sectors, suggesting that real activity declines in sectors with a high China exposure were not particularly driven by a slump in demand. Quantitatively, sectors at the third quartile of China exposures experienced larger monthly production declines of 2.5 p.p. in March and 9.4 p.p. in April 2020 than sectors at the first quartile. Differences in China exposures account for about 10% of the cross-sectoral variance of industrial production growth during March and April. The estimated effects are short-lived and dissipate by July 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Meier & Eugenio Pinto, 2020. "COVID-19 Supply Chain Disruptions," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_239, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_239
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/en/research-output/discussion-papers/discussion-papers#DP239
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    Cited by:

    1. Ando, Mitsuyo & Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on trade in services," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Zimpelmann, Christian & Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von & Holler, Radost & Janys, Lena & Siflinger, Bettina M., 2021. "Drivers of Working Hours and Household Income Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of the Netherlands," IZA Discussion Papers 14382, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Zimpelmann, Christian & Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von & Holler, Radost & Janys, Lena & Siflinger, Bettina, 2021. "Hours and income dynamics during the Covid-19 pandemic: The case of the Netherlands," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Kai A. Konrad & Marcel Thum, 2021. "Internationale Politikexternalitäten in der Pandemie," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 28(06), pages 07-11, December.
    5. Miguel Cardoso & Brandon Malloy, 2021. "Impact of the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Trade between Canada and the United States," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 47(4), pages 554-572, December.
    6. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Kohei Imai, 2022. "Who sends me face masks? Evidence for the impacts of COVID‐19 on international trade in medical goods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 365-385, February.
    7. de Lucio, Juan & Mínguez, Raúl & Minondo, Asier & Requena, Francisco, 2022. "Impact of Covid-19 containment measures on trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 766-778.
    8. Antoine Berthou & Sebastian Stumpner, 2022. "Trade Under Lockdown," Working papers 867, Banque de France.
    9. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski & Bojan Srbinoski, 2020. "The potential of export-oriented companies to contribute to post-Covid-19 economic recovery in North Macedonia," Finance Think Policy Studies 2020-12/33, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    10. Viral V. Acharya & Zhengyang Jiang & Robert J. Richmond & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2020. "Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    12. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Hiroshi Mukunoki, 2022. "Comment on “How COVID‐19 Medical Supply Shortages Led to Extraordinary Trade and Industrial Policy”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 138-139, January.
    14. Simola, Heli, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on global value chains," BOFIT Policy Briefs 2/2021, Bank of Finland, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    15. Clement A. Tisdell, 2021. "Determinants of the Economic Vulnerability of Businesses to Pandemics and Similar Events," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-13, November.
    16. Muhamad Rias K V Zainuddin & Nurul Aishah Khairuddin & Hakimah Nur Ahmad Hamidi, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on Malaysia’s Bilateral Export - Testing for Heterogeneous Effects in the Product Category," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 3(Early Vie), pages 1-5.
    17. Peter Eppinger & Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Oliver Krebs & Bohdan Kukharskyy, 2021. "Decoupling Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 9079, CESifo.
    18. Hakenes, Hendrik, 2021. "Face Masks, Yeast, and Toilet Paper: Panic Purchases and Stockpiling," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242360, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Khalil, Makram & Weber, Marc-Daniel, 2021. "Chinese supply chain shocks," MPRA Paper 110356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Péter Benczúr & István Kónya, 2022. "Convergence to the Centre," Contributions to Economics, in: László Mátyás (ed.), Emerging European Economies after the Pandemic, chapter 0, pages 1-51, Springer.
    21. INOUE Hiroyasu & TODO Yasuyuki, 2022. "Propagation of Overseas Economic Shocks through Global Supply Chains: Firm-level evidence," Discussion papers 22062, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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