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Effect of COVID-19 on International Trade among the Visegrad Countries


  • Erginbay Ugurlu

    (Department of International Business, Metropolitan University Prague, Dubečská 900/10, Strašnice, 100 31 Praha, Czech Republic)

  • Irena Jindřichovská

    (Department of Financial Management, Metropolitan University Prague, Dubečská 900/10, Strašnice, 100 31 Praha, Czech Republic)


The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been detrimental to all countries, despite the continuous efforts of governments on all continents to attempt to mitigate its damaging effects. All economic and social indicators have worsened. This study explores the impact of COVID-19 on international trade among the Visegrad Four (V4) countries. We employ data from Eurostat and FRED to explore this influence, using the monthly import and export data for the 2010 M1–2021 M4period. We estimate the trade model for each member country of the V4, exploring their trade relations with other V4 members. We employ a shift dummy and impulse dummy to show the effect of country lockdowns initiating possible structural change. After exploration, we found that the COVID-19 impact was evident in all countries, but not with the same strength. Looking outside the V4 group, we can also see that there are strong trade relations with Germany, which is the strongest European economy. For further exploration, we suggest investigating these outside links to complete the picture.

Suggested Citation

  • Erginbay Ugurlu & Irena Jindřichovská, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 on International Trade among the Visegrad Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:2:p:41-:d:727890

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    Cited by:

    1. Orhan Cengiz & Müge Manga, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1195-1219, October.
    2. Lucia Svabova & Katarina Kramarova & Dominika Chabadova, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Business Environment in Slovakia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Yekimov, Sergey, 2023. "Expanded brinks model of international trade of the visegrad four countries in 2000-2015," MPRA Paper 117050, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Apr 2023.
    4. Taeil Kim & Sunghwa Park & Hanna Kim & Janghan Kwon, 2023. "Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on International Trade: Cases of Major Countries Using the SUR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Yekimov, Sergey, 2023. "Brinks model of international trade of the Visegrad four countries in 2011-2020," MPRA Paper 117039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Yekimov, Sergey, 2023. "Expanded brinks model of international trade of the visegrad four countries in 2000-2015," MPRA Paper 117022, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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