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A VECX Model of the Swiss Economy

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  • Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche
  • M. Hashem Pesaran

Abstract

This paper applies the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to the estimation of a structural cointegrated VAR model that relates the core macroeconomic variables of the Swiss economy to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. We identify and test a long-run structure between the variables. Moreover, we analyse the dynamic properties of the model using Generalised Impulse Response Functions. In its current form the model can be used to produce forecasts for the endogenous variables either under alternative specifications of the marginal model for the exogenous variables, or conditional on some pre-specified path of those variables (for scenario forecasting). In due course the Swiss VECX model can also be integrated within a Global VAR (GVAR) model where the foreign variables of the model are determined endogenously.

Suggested Citation

  • Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008. "A VECX Model of the Swiss Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 2281, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    2. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008. "Forecasting the Swiss Economy Using Vecx* Models: an Exercise in Forecast Combination Across Models and Observation Windows," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 203(1), pages 91-108, January.
    3. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    4. Strøm,Steinar (ed.), 1999. "Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633659, October.
    5. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    6. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
    7. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    8. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460.
    9. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    12. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    13. Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2005. "Testing the nominal-to-real transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 205-225, February.
    14. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    15. Lee, Kevin C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1993. "Persistence profiles and business cycle fluctuations in a disaggregated model of U.K. output growth," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 293-322, September.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, September.
    17. Heon Jin Park & Wayne A. Fuller, 1995. "Alternative Estimators And Unit Root Tests For The Autoregressive Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 415-429, July.
    18. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    19. Ho, Mun S & Sorensen, Bent E, 1996. "Finding Cointegration Rank in High Dimensional Systems Using the Johansen Test: An Illustration Using Data Based Monte Carlo Simulations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 726-732, November.
    20. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-179, April.
    21. Strøm,Steinar (ed.), 1999. "Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633239, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2013. "Oil exports and the Iranian economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 221-237.
    2. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008. "Forecasting the Swiss Economy Using Vecx* Models: an Exercise in Forecast Combination Across Models and Observation Windows," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 203(1), pages 91-108, January.
    3. Annari Waal & Reneé Eyden, 2014. "Monetary policy and inflation in South Africa: A VECM augmented with foreign variables," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(1), pages 117-140, March.
    4. Dr. Marco Huwiler & Daniel Kaufmann, 2013. "Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model," Economic Studies 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Radmila Krkošková, 2019. "Modelování makroekonomických agregátů české a slovenské ekonomiky pomocí var modelů [Modelling Macroeconomic Aggregates of the Czech and Slovak Economies Using Var Models]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(6), pages 593-610.
    6. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    7. Carlos Capistrán & Daniel Chiquiar & Juan R. Hernández, 2019. "Identifying Dornbusch's Exchange Rate Overshooting with Structural VECs: Evidence from Mexico," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 207-254, December.
    8. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Artur Tarassow, 2013. "A Macroeconometric Assessment of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201306, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    9. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2012. "Assessing the international parity conditions and transmission mechanism for Malaysia-China," MPRA Paper 38930, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2007. "Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland: An Exercise in Forecast Combination across Models and Observation Windows," IZA Discussion Papers 3071, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2011. "A structural modeling of exchange rate, prices and interest rates between Malaysia-China in the liberalization era," MPRA Paper 32955, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ricci-Risquete, Alejandro & Ramajo, Julián, 2015. "The effects of fiscal policy on the Spanish economy: Keynesian or non-Keynesian behavior?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1019-1048.
    13. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    14. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(IV), pages 425-448, December.
    15. Catalán, Mario & Hoffmaister, Alexander W. & Harun, Cicilia Anggadewi, 2020. "Bank capital and lending: Evidence of nonlinearity from Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    16. Apostolos Kiohos, 2020. "Risk Affection and Transmission of News of Conditional Volatility from the Non-Life to Life Insurance Sector," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 77-86.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-run structural vector autoregression;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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