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Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables to their foreign counterparts and then consistently combined to form a Global VAR (GVAR). It is shown that VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where over-identifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. Similarly, short-run over-identifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where foreign variables can be interpreted as proxies for global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated.

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File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0604.pdf
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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0604.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0604
Note: Em
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler, 2005. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 1548, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2005. "On the Fit and Forecasting Performance of New Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 4848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2006. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199296859.
  9. Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M., 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
  11. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Estimation and Inference in Large Multifactor Panels: Small Sample Results with an Application to Modelling of Asset Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 1416, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  16. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. Anthony Garratt & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2005. "Permanent vs Transitory Components and Economic Fundamentals," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0501, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  19. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  20. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2006. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 47, Society for Computational Economics.
  21. Gianluca Lagana & Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy In The Uk: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 77-98, 09.
  22. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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