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What if the UK has Joined the Euro in 1999? An Empirical Evaluation using a Global VAR

  • Pesaran, M.H.
  • Smith, L.V.
  • Smith, R.P

We provide a conceptual framework to analysis counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. We consider UK entry to the euro. We derive conditional probability distributions for the difference between the future realisations of variables of interest subject to UK entry restrictions being fully met over a given period, and the alternative realisations without the restrictions. Economic interdependence means that such policy evaluation must take account of international linkages and common factors that drive fluctuations across economies. We use the Global VAR developed by Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran and Smith (2005). The paper briefly describes the GVAR which has been estimated for 25 countries and the euro area over the period 1979-2003. It reports probability estimates that output will be higher and prices lower in the UK and the euro area as a result of entry. It examines the sensitivity of these results to a variety of assumptions about UK entry.

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File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0528.pdf
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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0528.

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Length: 52
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0528
Note: EM
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

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  1. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1425, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. James L. Heckman, 1999. "Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economcs: A Twentieth Century Retrospective," NBER Working Papers 7333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
  5. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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