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Deep Trade Agreements and FDI in Partial and General Equilibrium: A Structural Estimation Framework

Author

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  • Mario Larch
  • Yoto V Yotov

Abstract

This paper quantifies the relationships between deep trade agreements and foreign direct investment (FDI). The analysis relies on a structural framework that simultaneously enables (a) estimating the direct impact of deep trade agreements on FDI, (b) translating the partial deep trade agreement estimates into general equilibrium effects on FDI, and (c) obtaining partial deep trade agreement effects on trade and quantifying the impact of deep trade agreements on FDI through trade. The effects of deep trade agreements on both trade and FDI are sizeable, positive, and statistically significant. A counterfactual analysis suggests that together with direct and indirect channels deep trade agreements have contributed to a large but asymmetric increase in inward versus outward FDI.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Yoto V Yotov, 2025. "Deep Trade Agreements and FDI in Partial and General Equilibrium: A Structural Estimation Framework," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 281-307.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:39:y:2025:i:2:p:281-307.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhae031
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamara Gurevich & Peter R. Herman & Farid Toubal & Y. Yotov, 2024. "The Domestic and International Common Language Database," Working Papers hal-04682625, HAL.
    2. Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Jordi Paniagua, 2024. "Do Deep Trade Agreements’ Provisions Actually Increase – or Decrease – Trade and/or FDI?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11526, CESifo.
    3. Ridwan Ah Sheikh & Sunil Kanwar, 2024. "Do Deep Trade Agreements with Intellectual Property Provisions Actually Increase International Trade?," Working papers 344, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Moder, Isabella & Spital, Tajda, 2025. "The protectionist gamble: How tariffs shape greenfield foreign direct investment," Working Paper Series 3144, European Central Bank.
    5. Guohua Chen & Jianrui Zhou & Cheyuan Liu & Fangzhou Liu & Chunyu Zhang & Yuhan Su, 2025. "The Impact of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the Global Value Chain of Manufacturing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-23, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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