IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lvl/creacr/2015-2.html

RTAs' Proliferation and Trade-diversion Effects: Evidence of the "Spaghetti Bowl" Phenomenon

Author

Listed:
  • Zakaria Sorgho

Abstract

This paper investigates the trade-diversion effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs), so-called “Spaghetti bowl” Phenomenon (SBP), in multilateral trade. The SBP is due to the proliferation of RTAs. Thus, I investigate the relationship between the number of RTAs concluded by a country and the additional trade value attributed to an RTA. Using bilateral trade data in a sample of 119 countries, from 1995 to 2012, my main finding reveals a negative trade-effect between them, confirming the existence of SBP multilateral trade. However, results could not conclude evidence of a negative effect of overlapping RTAs, involving the existence of SBP, within North-North, North-South or South-South trade. But, the additional trade value attributed to an RTA concluded with EU countries or US seems to confirm significantly a trade-diversion effect because of the number of RTAs signed by these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zakaria Sorgho, 2015. "RTAs' Proliferation and Trade-diversion Effects: Evidence of the "Spaghetti Bowl" Phenomenon," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2015-2, CREATE.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:creacr:2015-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.create.ulaval.ca/sites/create.ulaval.ca/files/Publications/create2015-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10840 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jeffrey Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 384-416, July.
    3. Vincent Vicard, 2009. "On trade creation and regional trade agreements: does depth matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(2), pages 167-187, July.
    4. Beghin, John C., 2012. "Non Tariff Measures with Market Imperfections: Trade and Welfare Implications," 2012: New Rules of Trade? December 2012, San Diego, California 142787, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    6. Dai, Mian & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2014. "On the trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 321-325.
    7. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249, April.
    8. Baldwin, Richard & Jaimovich, Dany, 2012. "Are Free Trade Agreements contagious?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-16.
    9. Luca De Benedictis & Luca Salvatici (ed.), 2011. "The Trade Impact of European Union Preferential Policies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-16564-1, January.
    10. Richard E. Baldwin, 2011. "Multilateralising Regionalism: Spaghetti Bowls as Building Blocks on the Path to Global Free Trade," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Egger, Peter, 2000. "A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 25-31, January.
    12. Valentina Raimondi & Margherita Scoppola & Alessandro Olper, 2012. "Preference erosion and the developing countries exports to the EU: a dynamic panel gravity approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(4), pages 707-732, December.
    13. Giles, David E. A., 1982. "The interpretation of dummy variables in semilogarithmic equations : Unbiased estimation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 77-79.
    14. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    15. Bhagwati, Jagdish, 2008. "Termites in the Trading System: How Preferential Agreements Undermine Free Trade," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195331653.
    16. Foster, Neil & Poeschl, Johannes & Stehrer, Robert, 2011. "The impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on the margins of international trade," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 84-97, March.
    17. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 63-76, February.
    18. DeRosa, Dean A., 1998. "Regional integration arrangements : static economic theory, quantitative findings, and policy guidelines," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2007, The World Bank.
    19. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00395100 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Vicard, Vincent, 2011. "Determinants of successful regional trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 188-190, June.
    21. Zakaria Sorgho & Bruno Larue, 2014. "Geographical indication regulation and intra-trade in the European Union," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(S1), pages 1-12, November.
    22. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, February.
    23. Vincent Vicard, 2009. "On trade creation and regional trade agreements: does depth matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(2), pages 167-187, July.
    24. Marcel Fafchamps & Flore Gubert, 2007. "Risk Sharing and Network Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 75-79, May.
    25. Maurice Schiff & L. Alan Winters, 2003. "Regional Integration and Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15172, April.
    26. Magee, Christopher S.P., 2008. "New measures of trade creation and trade diversion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 349-362, July.
    27. Jason H. Grant & Dayton M. Lambert, 2008. "Do Regional Trade Agreements Increase Members' Agricultural Trade?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 765-782.
    28. Mian Dai & Yoto Yotov & Thomas Zylkin, 2013. "On the Trade-diversion Effects of Free Trade Agreements," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2013-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    29. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    30. Sorgho, Zakaria & Larue, Bruno, 2014. "Geographical Indication Regulation and Intra-Trade in the European Union," Working Papers 162246, University of Laval, Center for Research on the Economics of the Environment, Agri-food, Transports and Energy (CREATE).
    31. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    32. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
    33. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Greenaway, David & Panagariya, Arvind, 1998. "Trading Preferentially: Theory and Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1128-1148, July.
    34. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Felicitas, Nowak-Lehmann D. & Horsewood, Nicholas, 2009. "Are regional trading agreements beneficial?: Static and dynamic panel gravity models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-65, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sorgho, Zakaria, 2015. "RTAs' Proliferation and Trade-Diversion Effects: Evidence of the "Spaghetti Bowl" Phenomenon," Working Papers 206223, University of Laval, Center for Research on the Economics of the Environment, Agri-food, Transports and Energy (CREATE).
    2. Zakaria Sorgho, 2016. "RTAs' Proliferation and Trade-diversion Effects: Evidence of the ‘Spaghetti Bowl’ Phenomenon," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 285-300, February.
    3. Fugazza, Marco & Nicita, Alessandro, 2011. "Measuring preferential market access," MPRA Paper 38565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sangeeta Khorana & Badri G. Narayanan, 2017. "Modelling Effects of Tariff Liberalisation on India’s Key Export Sectors: Analysis of the EU–India Free Trade Agreement," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Valeria Costantini & Francesco Crespi, 2015. "European enlargement policy, technological capabilities and sectoral export dynamics," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 25-69, February.
    6. Jayjit Roy, 2014. "On the robustness of the trade-inducing effects of trade agreements and currency unions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 253-304, August.
    7. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "The breadth of preferential trade agreements and the margins of exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 181-251, February.
    8. Yang, Shanping & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2014. "A panel data analysis of trade creation and trade diversion effects: The case of ASEAN–China Free Trade Area," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 138-151.
    9. C. Chafer & S. Gil‐Pareja & R. Llorca‐Vivero, 2022. "Warning: Bilateral trade agreements do not create trade," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 135-144, January.
    10. Tamini, Lota D. & Chebbi, Houssem Eddine & Abbassi, Abdessalem, 2016. "Trade performance and potential of North African countries: An application of a stochastic frontier gravity model," AGRODEP working papers 33, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Florian Mölders & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 429-456, September.
    12. Margherita Scoppola & Valentina Raimondi & Alessandro Olper, 2018. "The impact of EU trade preferences on the extensive and intensive margins of agricultural and food products," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 251-263, March.
    13. Siyu Huang & Wensha Gou & Hongbo Cai & Xiaomeng Li & Qinghua Chen, 2020. "Effects of Regional Trade Agreement to Local and Global Trade Purity Relationships," Papers 2006.07329, arXiv.org.
    14. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Yoshimi, Taiyo, 2016. "Gravity with multiple tariff schemes," IDE Discussion Papers 614, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    15. Steven Buigut, 2016. "Trade Effects of the East African Community Customs Union: Hype Versus Reality," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(3), pages 422-439, September.
    16. Frederik Stender, 2018. "MERCOSUR in gravity: an accounting approach to analyzing its trade effects," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 501-522, April.
    17. Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Estimating the effects of non‐discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 376-409, February.
    18. Sébastien Jean & Jean-Christophe Bureau, 2015. "Do Regional Trade Agreements Really Boost Trade? Estimates for Agricultural Products," Working Papers 2015-09, CEPII research center.
    19. Fugazza, Marco & Nicita, Alessandro, 2013. "The direct and relative effects of preferential market access," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 357-368.
    20. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2011. "The role of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in facilitating global production networks," IDE Discussion Papers 280, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:creacr:2015-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Manuel Paradis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/calvlca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.