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How Did the 2003 SARS Epidemic Shape Chinese Trade?

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  • Ana P. Fernandes
  • Heiwai Tang

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic on China’s trade. Using quarterly transaction-level trade data of all Chinese firms, we find that firms in regions with local transmission of SARS experienced lower import and export growth at both the intensive and extensive margins, compared to those in the unaffected regions. The affected firms’ trade growth remained lower two years after SARS. Products that are more capital-intensive, skill-intensive, upstream in the supply chains, and differentiated experienced a smaller export decline but a stronger recovery. Small exporters were more likely to exit, slowing down trade recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana P. Fernandes & Heiwai Tang, 2020. "How Did the 2003 SARS Epidemic Shape Chinese Trade?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8312, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8312
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8312.pdf
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > SARS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anirudh Shingal & Prachi Agarwal, 2020. "How did trade in GVC-based products respond to previous health shocks? Lessons for COVID-19," RSCAS Working Papers 2020/68, European University Institute.
    2. Chang Ma & John H. Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2020. "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," International Finance Discussion Papers 1295, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Javier Barbero & Juan José de Lucio & Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo, 2021. "Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Jiansuo Pei & Gaaitzen de Vries & Meng Zhang, 2022. "International trade and Covid‐19: City‐level evidence from China's lockdown policy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 670-695, June.
    6. Pol Antràs & Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2023. "Globalization and Pandemics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(4), pages 939-981, April.
    7. Konstantin Büchel & Stefan Legge & Vincent Pochon & Philipp Wegmüller, 2020. "Swiss trade during the COVID-19 pandemic: an early appraisal," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Hancock, Mary Everett & Mora, Jesse, 2023. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade and production: An empirical analysis of processing trade with Japan and the US," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. de Lucio, Juan & Mínguez, Raúl & Minondo, Asier & Requena, Francisco, 2022. "Impact of Covid-19 containment measures on trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 766-778.
    10. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski & Bojan Srbinoski, 2020. "The potential of export-oriented companies to contribute to post-Covid-19 economic recovery in North Macedonia," Finance Think Policy Studies 2020-12/33, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Längle, Katharina & Xu, Ankai & Tian, Ruijie, 2021. "Assessing the supply chain effect of natural disasters: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    13. Xue BAI & MA Hong & MAKIOKA Ryo, 2022. "The Values of Export Promotion: The case of the canton fair during the SARS epidemic," Discussion papers 22078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Chang Ma & John H. Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2020. "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," International Finance Discussion Papers 1295, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Zainuddin, Muhamad Rias K V & Shukor, Md Shafiin & Zulkifli, Muhamad Solehuddin & Abdullah, Amirul Hamza, 2021. "Dynamics of Malaysia’s Bilateral Export Post Covid-19: A Gravity Model Analysis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(1), pages 51-69.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; SARS; trade collapse; post-pandemic recovery; natural disasters; disruption; global supply chains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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