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Global economic effects of war‐induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine

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Listed:
  • Amanda M. Countryman
  • Valentyn Litvinov
  • Ivan Kolodiazhnyi
  • Mariia Bogonos
  • Oleg Nivievskyi

Abstract

The war in Ukraine caused export disruptions that jeopardized the availability and affordability of agricultural and food products around the world. This research employs a computable general equilibrium modeling framework to understand the global economic effects of war‐induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine, given the inability to export through the Black Sea. Results show net global welfare losses ranging from more than $5 billion to nearly $20 billion depending on the success of transport through European Solidarity Lanes.

Suggested Citation

  • Amanda M. Countryman & Valentyn Litvinov & Ivan Kolodiazhnyi & Mariia Bogonos & Oleg Nivievskyi, 2025. "Global economic effects of war‐induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 624-665, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:47:y:2025:i:2:p:624-665
    DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13468
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    1. repec:ags:aaea22:335482 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Goyal, Raghav & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "Agricultural commodity markets in the wake of the black sea grain initiative," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
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