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The Impacts of the Russia–Ukraine Invasion on Global Markets and Commodities: A Dynamic Connectedness among G7 and BRIC Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Md. Kausar Alam

    (BRAC Business School, BRAC University, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh)

  • Mosab I. Tabash

    (College of Business, Al Ain University, Al Ain P.O. Box 64141, United Arab Emirates)

  • Mabruk Billah

    (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Auckland 0745, New Zealand)

  • Sanjeev Kumar

    (Faculty of Management Studies, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, India)

  • Suhaib Anagreh

    (Higher Colleges of Technology, Dubai P.O. Box 25026, United Arab Emirates)

Abstract

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been causing knock-on effects worldwide. The supply and price of major commodity markets (oil, gas, platinum, gold, and silver) have been greatly impacted. Due to the ongoing conflict, financial markets across the world have experienced a strong dynamic regarding commodities prices. This effect can be considered the biggest change since the occurrence of the financial crisis in the year 2008, which explicitly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study attempts to investigate the impacts of the Russian invasion crisis on the dynamic connectedness among five commodities and the G7 and BRIC (leading stock) markets. We have applied the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) method, which reflects the way spillovers are shaped by various crises periods, and we found extreme connectedness among all commodities and markets (G7 and BRIC). The findings show that gold and silver (commodities) and the United States, Canada, China, and Brazil (stock markets) are the receivers from the rest of the commodities/market’s transmitters of shocks during this invasion crisis. This research has policy implications that could be beneficial to commodity and stock investors, and these implications could guide them to make many decisions about investment in such tumultuous situations. Policymakers, institutional investors, bankers, and international organizations are the possible beneficiaries of these policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Md. Kausar Alam & Mosab I. Tabash & Mabruk Billah & Sanjeev Kumar & Suhaib Anagreh, 2022. "The Impacts of the Russia–Ukraine Invasion on Global Markets and Commodities: A Dynamic Connectedness among G7 and BRIC Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:8:p:352-:d:882864
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Guo, Yaoqi & Li, Yingli & Liu, Yongheng & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical relations on the evolution of cobalt trade network from the perspective of industrial chain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    4. Patel, Ritesh & Kumar, Sanjeev & Bouri, Elie & Iqbal, Najaf, 2023. "Spillovers between green and dirty cryptocurrencies and socially responsible investments around the war in Ukraine," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 143-162.
    5. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Sinha, Avik & Murshed, Muntasir, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict sentiments and energy market returns in G7 countries: Discovering the unexplored dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Piotr Fiszeder & Marta Ma³ecka, 2022. "Forecasting volatility during the outbreak of Russian invasion of Ukraine: application to commodities, stock indices, currencies, and cryptocurrencies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(4), pages 939-967, December.
    7. Naima BENTOUIR, 2022. "The Russia-Ukraine invasion toward increasing food security threat for population: An empirical study using T-GARCH model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(633), W), pages 173-184, Winter.
    8. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Mohamed F. Abd El-Aal & Abdelsamiea Tahsin Abdelsamiea, 2023. "The impact of Russian Energy Resources on the Economic Growth of the EU: Using Computational Intelligence Algorithms," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 597-602, November.
    10. Krzysztof Dmytrów & Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Joanna Landmesser-Rusek, 2022. "Sustainable Energy in European Countries: Analysis of Sustainable Development Goal 7 Using the Dynamic Time Warping Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-17, October.
    11. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Roy, Archi & Soni, Anchal & Deb, Soudeep, 2023. "A wavelet-based methodology to compare the impact of pandemic versus Russia–Ukraine conflict on crude oil sector and its interconnectedness with other energy and non-energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

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