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Using free remotely sensed data to assess war-induced damage to agricultural cultivation: Evidence from Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Deininger, Klaus
  • Ali, Daniel Ayalew
  • Kussul, Nataliia
  • Shelestov, Andrii
  • Shumilo, Leonid
  • Lemoine, Guido

Abstract

We use remotely sensed data to measure conflict-induced field damage in Ukraine 2022-24 for about 10,000 village councils (VCs). Compared to media-based indicators (ACLED), these suggest higher conflict incidence in less densely populated VCs, consistent with official data. Use of annual crop maps for 2019-24 to estimate a difference in differences (DID) model at VC level suggests conflict significantly and persistently reduced cropped area in directly affected and neighboring VCs. Predicted conflict effects are three times larger and differently distributed for image as compared to media-based indicators, suggesting remotely sensed conflict measures may usefully complement media-based ones, especially in rural areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Deininger, Klaus & Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Kussul, Nataliia & Shelestov, Andrii & Shumilo, Leonid & Lemoine, Guido, 2026. "Using free remotely sensed data to assess war-induced damage to agricultural cultivation: Evidence from Ukraine," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:179:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825002123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103661
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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