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Crops, Conflict and Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Erhan Artuc
  • Porto,Guido
  • Bob Rijkers

Abstract

This paper studies the welfare impacts of agricultural shocks on households with detailed heterogeneity, by taking consumption, land, and labor allocation choices into account. The underlying model is quantified with household survey data from 51 developing countries, then used to analyze the welfare consequences of the food price hikes induced by the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine and future climate change. Both repress income and exacerbate inequality. War-induced food inflation reduced real household incomes across developing countries by 2.90 percent on average, while changes in yields due to climate change will reduce real incomes by 11.99 percent. The welfare impacts of both shocks vary enormously across the income distribution, with already vulnerable households bearing the brunt of their costs. Poor households suffer losses that are considerably larger and much more dispersed than those predicted by models that do not feature household heterogeneity and rely exclusively on aggregate data.

Suggested Citation

  • Erhan Artuc & Porto,Guido & Bob Rijkers, 2025. "Crops, Conflict and Climate Change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11018, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11018
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    File URL: https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099006401072518853/pdf/IDU-9b5f24d7-86a7-4482-b6f6-e7481c4b1049.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson, 2016. "How Large Are the Gains from Economic Integration? Theory and Evidence from U.S. Agriculture, 1880-1997," NBER Working Papers 22946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Trevor Tombe, 2015. "The Missing Food Problem: Trade, Agriculture, and International Productivity Differences," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 226-258, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ge, Pingxu & Tang, Daogui & Yuan, Yuji & Guerrero, Josep M. & Zio, Enrico, 2025. "A hierarchical multi-objective co-optimization framework for sizing and energy management of coupled hydrogen-electricity energy storage systems at ports," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 384(C).
    2. Deininger, Klaus & Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Kussul, Nataliia & Shelestov, Andrii & Shumilo, Leonid & Lemoine, Guido, 2026. "Using free remotely sensed data to assess war-induced damage to agricultural cultivation: Evidence from Ukraine," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

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