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Agricultural production amid conflict: Separating the effects of conflict into shocks and uncertainty

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  • Arias, María Alejandra
  • Ibáñez, Ana María
  • Zambrano, Andrés

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter-temporal model of agricultural production is developed in which the impact of conflict is transmitted through violent shocks and uncertainty brought about by conflict. We test the model using a unique household survey applied to 4800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. Our findings suggest households learn to live amid conflict, albeit at a lower income trajectory. When presence of non-state armed actors prolongs, farmers shift to activities with short-term yields and lower profitability from activities that require high investments. If violence intensifies in regions with presence of non-state armed actors, farmers concentrate on subsistence activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Arias, María Alejandra & Ibáñez, Ana María & Zambrano, Andrés, 2019. "Agricultural production amid conflict: Separating the effects of conflict into shocks and uncertainty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 165-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:119:y:2019:i:c:p:165-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Uncertainty; Agricultural production; Small-farmers; Developing economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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