Violence exposure and poverty: Evidence from the Burundi civil war

We investigate the relationship between exposure to the Burundi Civil War and household (food) poverty, using a three-wave household-level panel matched with data on local-level violence. We find that households living in localities exposed to the war have been subsequently more likely to be poor than non-exposed households. Within-household estimations, controlling for time-varying heterogeneity at the province level, confirm the positive impact of violence exposure on household poverty. We investigate some of the potential mechanisms at play in the violence – poverty nexus, and the role of violence exposure in household poverty dynamics over time. Our results notably suggest that the destruction of physical capital, as well as a shift of exposed households out of non-farm activities, shape poverty dynamics and lower their chances of durably remaining out of poverty.