IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v46y2022i1s0939362522000024.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling conflict impact and postconflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen

Author

Listed:
  • Mukashov, Askar
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Engelke, Wilfried
  • Wiebelt, Manfred

Abstract

Evidence-based planning for countries in the midst of conflict is often constrained by missing data and the lack of appropriate analytical tools. To overcome these constraints, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model combined with systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) to investigate the impact of conflict on Yemen’s economy and to analyze potential pathways for recovery after the conflict finally ends. Our results suggest that conflict-related disruptions in agriculture and mining sent devastating shockwaves throughout the economy, accounting for the lion’s share of the country’s economic losses and increase in poverty. Our results suggest that supporting agriculture should take the highest priority, as reconstruction of that sector, followed by the mining sector, has the largest positive impact on growth and poverty reduction. However, our estimates also suggest that the restoration of its prewar economic status quo is unlikely. In addition to serving as a direct input for Yemen’s reconstruction planning, our paper also demonstrates the usefulness of overarching models for conflict and postconflict economic assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Mukashov, Askar & Breisinger, Clemens & Engelke, Wilfried & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2022. "Modeling conflict impact and postconflict reconstruction: The case of Yemen," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:46:y:2022:i:1:s0939362522000024
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100940
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362522000024
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100940?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angel Aguiar & Badri Narayanan & Robert McDougall, 2016. "An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 181-208, June.
    2. Euan Phimister & Deborah Roberts, 2017. "Allowing for uncertainty in exogenous shocks to CGE models: the case of a new renewable energy sector," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 509-527, October.
    3. World Bank, 2012. "Republic of Yemen - Joint Social and Economic Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 12284, The World Bank Group.
    4. Clemens Breisinger & Xinshen Diao & Marie‐Helen Collion & Pierre Rondot, 2011. "Impacts of the Triple Global Crisis on Growth and Poverty: The Case of Yemen," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 29(2), pages 155-184, March.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. Ganegodage, K. Renuka & Rambaldi, Alicia N., 2014. "Economic consequences of war: Evidence from Sri Lanka," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 42-53.
    7. World Bank & United Nations & European Union & Islamic Development Bank, 2012. "Joint Social and Economic Assessment for the Republic of Yemen," World Bank Publications - Reports 11920, The World Bank Group.
    8. Raouf, Mariam & Randriamamonjy, Josée & Engelke, Wilfried & Kebsi, Tarek Al & Tandon, Sharad A. & Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens, 2019. "Regionalized Social Accounting Matrix for Yemen: A 2014 Nexus project SAM," MENA working papers 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Mercier, Marion & Ngenzebuke, Rama Lionel & Verwimp, Philip, 2020. "Violence exposure and poverty: Evidence from the Burundi civil war," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 822-840.
    10. Johanes Agbahey & Khalid Siddig & Harald Grethe, 2016. "Consequences of conflict: the impact of the closure regime on the economy of the West Bank economy," EcoMod2016 9197, EcoMod.
    11. World Bank, 2015. "Republic of Yemen," World Bank Publications - Reports 23660, The World Bank Group.
    12. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Report 2012 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2012]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4391, December.
    13. Mohammad Reza Gharibnavaz & Robert Waschik, 2018. "A computable general equilibrium model of international sanctions in Iran," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 287-307, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ecker, Olivier, 2014. "Resilience for food security in the face of civil conflict in Yemen," IFPRI book chapters, in: Fan, Shenggen & Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Yosef, Sivan (ed.), 2013 Global Food Policy Report, chapter 7, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer, 2013. "Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 77-89.
    3. Crost, Benjamin & Felter, Joseph H. & Johnston, Patrick B., 2016. "Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence: Experimental evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 171-182.
    4. Ummad Mazhar, 2021. "Women empowerment and insecurity: firm-level evidence," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 43-53, January.
    5. Benjamin Crost & Joseph H Felter & Hani Mansour & Daniel I Rees, 0. "Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 767-789.
    6. Ziesmer, Johannes & Jin, Ding & Mukashov, Askar & Henning, Christian, 2023. "Integrating fundamental model uncertainty in policy analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    7. Lamis Al-Iryani & Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2013. "Delivering Good Aid in Hard Places: the Yemen Social Fund for Development Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-080, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Mukashov, Askar & Jin, Ding & Henning, Christian & Hedtrich, Johannes, 2019. "Estimation of Growth Elasticities in the General Equilibrium Framework under Model Uncertainty," Conference papers 333081, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Carly Petracco & Helena Schweiger, 2012. "The impact of armed conflict on firms’ performance and perceptions," Working Papers 152, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    10. Maksym Obrizan, 2022. "Poverty, Unemployment and Displacement in Ukraine: three months into the war," Papers 2211.05628, arXiv.org.
    11. Benjamin Crost & Joseph H. Felter, 2015. "Is Conflict Contagious? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," HiCN Working Papers 197, Households in Conflict Network.
    12. Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana & Baskaran, Thushyanthan, 2015. "Re-evaluating the economic costs of conflicts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 246, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    13. Rocco, Matteo V. & Guevara, Zeus & Heun, Matthew Kuperus, 2020. "Assessing energy and economic impacts of large-scale policy shocks based on Input-Output analysis: Application to Brexit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    14. d'Agostino, Giorgio & Pieroni, Luca & Scarlato, Margherita, 2013. "Social Protection and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Evaluation of Cash Transfer Programmes," MPRA Paper 49536, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mukashov, A., 2023. "Parameter uncertainty in policy planning models: Using portfolio management methods to choose optimal policies under world market volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-202.
    16. Al-Iryani, Lamis & de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2013. "Delivering Good Aid in Hard Places: The Yemen Social Fund for Development Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 080, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Bassil Charbel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Consequences of War and Terrorism in Lebanon," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 415-429, December.
    18. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier, 2014. "Simulating economic growth effects on food and nutrition security in Yemen: A new macro–micro modeling approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 100-113.
    19. Kaila, Heidi & Azad, Abul, 2023. "The effects of crime and violence on food insecurity and consumption in Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Helen M. Haugh & Alka Talwar, 2016. "Linking Social Entrepreneurship and Social Change: The Mediating Role of Empowerment," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 643-658, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Economy-wide modeling; Middle East; Reconstruction; Uncertainty; Yemen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:46:y:2022:i:1:s0939362522000024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.