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Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change

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  • Wiebelt, Manfred
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Ecker, Olivier
  • Al-Riffai, Perrihan
  • Robertson, Richard
  • Thiele, Rainer

Abstract

This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes and food security. Rural non-farm households are hit hardest as they tend to be net food consumers with high food budget shares, but farm households also experience real income losses given that many of them are net buyers of food. The impacts of local climate change are less clear given the ambiguous predictions of global climate models (GCMs) with respect to future rainfall patterns in Yemen. Local climate change impacts manifest itself in long term yield changes, which differ between two alternative climate scenarios considered. Under the MIR scenario, agricultural GDP is somewhat higher than with perfect mitigation and rural incomes rise due to higher yields and lower prices for sorghum and millet. Under the CSI scenario, positive and negative yield changes cancel each other out. As a result, agricultural GDP and household incomes hardly change compared to perfect mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer, 2013. "Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 77-89.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:43:y:2013:i:c:p:77-89
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.08.009
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    3. Siddig, Khalid & Stepanyan, Davit & Wiebelt, Manfred & Grethe, Harald & Zhu, Tingju, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Castro Campos, Bente & Ren, Yanjun & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2020. "Scarce water resources and cereal import dependency: The role of integrated water resources management," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Andersen, Lykke E. & Breisinger, Clemens & Jemio, Luis Carlos & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Verner, Dorte & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2016. "Climate change impacts and household resilience: Prospects for 2050 in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru," Food policy reports 978-0-89629-581-0, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Andersen, Lykke E. & Breisinger, Clemens & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Jemio, Luis Carlos & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Verner, Dorte & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2014. "Agriculture, incomes, and gender in Latin America by 2050: An assessment of climate change impacts and household resilience for Brazil, Mexico, and Peru:," IFPRI discussion papers 1390, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Mukashov, Askar & Henning, Christian H. C. A. & Robertson, Richard & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2021. "The role of Global Climate Change in structural transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa: Case study of Senegal," Kiel Working Papers 2187, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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