IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/ifprid/1139.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate change and floods in Yemen: Impacts on food security and options for adaptation

Author

Listed:
  • Wiebelt, Manfred
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Ecker, Olivier
  • Al-Riffai, Perrihan
  • Robertson, Richard
  • Thiele, Rainer

Abstract

This paper uses both a global and local perspective to assess the impacts of climate change on the Yemeni economy, agriculture, and household income and food security. The major impact channels of climate change are through changing world food prices as a result of global food scarcities, long-term local yield changes as a result of temperature and rainfall variations, and damages and losses of cropland, fruit trees, livestock, and infrastructure as a result of natural disasters such as recurrent storms and floods. Moreover, spatial variation in climate change impacts within Yemen means that such effects can vary across subnational regions. We develop a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model with six agroecological zones to capture linkages between climate change, production, and household incomes. We also capture changes in per capita calorie consumption in response to changing household expenditure for assessing changes in people's hunger situation as a measure for food security. Given the high uncertainty surrounding future global food prices and local yields, all simulations are run under two global climate scenarios. The results of the CGE simulations suggest that climate-change-induced higher global prices for food will lower Yemen's overall GDP growth, raise agricultural GDP, decrease real household incomes, and increase the number of hungry people. Local impacts of climate change are different for the two climate scenarios. Overall, the long-term implications of climate change (local and global) lead to a total accumulated reduction of household welfare of between US$5.7 and $9.2 billion by 2050 under MIR or CSI conditions, respectively. Moreover, between 80,000 and 270,000 people could go hungry due to climate change. Rural households are harder hit than urban households, and among the rural households the non-farm households suffer most. This household group is projected to lose an accumulated 3.5 to 5.7 billion US$ as a consequence of longer term climate change by 2050. In addition to the longer-term climate change effects, climate variability is shown to induce heavy economic losses and spikes in food insecurity. The impact assessment of the October 2008 tropical storm and floods in the Wadi Hadramout puts the total cumulated real income loss over the period 2008-12 at 180 percent of pre-flood agricultural value added. Due to the direct flood loss, farmers in the flooding areas suffer most in the year of the flood occurrence, where the percentage of hungry people living from farming spiked by about 15 percentage points as an immediate result of the flood. Action to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and variability should to be taken on the global and local level. A global action plan for improving food security combined with a better integration of climate change in national development strategies, agricultural and rural policies, and disaster risk management and social protection policies will be keys for improving the resilience of Yemen and Yemenis to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer, 2011. "Climate change and floods in Yemen: Impacts on food security and options for adaptation," IFPRI discussion papers 1139, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp01139.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley, 2006. "An entropy approach to spatial disaggregation of agricultural production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 329-347, October.
    2. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Breisinger, Clemens & Zhu, Tingju & Al Riffai, Perrihan & Nelson, Gerald & Robertson, Richard & Funes, Jose & Verner, Dorte, 2011. "Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation:," IFPRI discussion papers 1091, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Hai, Nguyen Manh, 2010. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation: The case of Vietnam," IFPRI discussion papers 1015, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Funes, Jose & Yu, Bingxin, 2010. "Food as the basis for development and security: A strategy for Yemen," IFPRI discussion papers 1036, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Horridge, Mark & Madden, John & Wittwer, Glyn, 2005. "The impact of the 2002-2003 drought on Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-308, April.
    8. Boyd, Roy & Ibarrarã N, Maria E., 2009. "Extreme climate events and adaptation: an exploratory analysis of drought in Mexico," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 371-395, June.
    9. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Economic transformation in theory and practice: What are the messages for Africa?," IFPRI discussion papers 797, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & Bachu, Murthy & Van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2011. "The economic costs of extreme weather events: a hydrometeorological CGE analysis for Malawi," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 177-198, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. World Bank, 2015. "Republic of Yemen," World Bank Other Operational Studies 23660, The World Bank.
    2. Van Campenhout, Bjorn & Pauw, Karl & Minot, Nicholas, 2013. "The impact of food prices shocks in Uganda: First-order versus long-run effects:," IFPRI discussion papers 1284, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Breisinger, Clemens & Zhu, Tingju & Al Riffai, Perrihan & Nelson, Gerald & Robertson, Richard & Funes, Jose & Verner, Dorte, 2011. "Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation:," IFPRI discussion papers 1091, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Clemens Breisinger & Tingju Zhu & Perrihan Al Riffai & Gerald Nelson & Richard Robertson & Jose Funes & Dorte Verner, 2013. "Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Syria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-30.
    3. Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer, 2013. "Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 77-89.
    4. Thomas, Timothy S., 2015. "US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress:," IFPRI discussion papers 1485, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Hachigonta, Sepo & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Sibanda, Lindiwe M., 2013. "Overview," IFPRI book chapters, in: Hachigonta, Sepo & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Sibanda, Lindiwe Majele (ed.), Southern African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis, chapter 1, pages 1-24, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Freire-González, Jaume & Decker, Christopher & Hall, Jim W., 2017. "The Economic Impacts of Droughts: A Framework for Analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 196-204.
    7. Siddig, Khalid & Stepanyan, Davit & Wiebelt, Manfred & Grethe, Harald & Zhu, Tingju, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Fuss, Sabine & Havlik, Petr & Szolgayova, Jana & Schmid, Erwin & Obersteiner, Michael, 2011. "Large-Scale Modelling of Global Food Security and Adaptation under Crop Yield Uncertainty," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114347, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Masato Yamazaki & Atsushi Koike & Yoshinori Sone, 2018. "A Heuristic Approach to the Estimation of Key Parameters for a Monthly, Recursive, Dynamic CGE Model," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 283-301, October.
    10. Kiselev, Sergey & Romashkin, Roman & Nelson, Gerald C. & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Palazzo, Amanda, 2013. "Russia's food security and climate change: Looking into the future," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-66.
    11. Taheripour, Farzad & Hertel, Thomas W. & Liu, Jing, 2013. "Water Reliability, Irrigation Adoption, and Land Use Changes in the Presence of Biofuel Production," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151225, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Aw-Hassan, Aden, 2014. "Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 245-255.
    13. Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B., 2014. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 562-575.
    14. Jing-Li Fan & Qiao-Mei Liang & Xiao-Jie Liang & Hirokazu Tatano & Yoshio Kajitani & Yi-Ming Wei, 2014. "National vulnerability to extreme climatic events: the cases of electricity disruption in China and Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1937-1956, April.
    15. Takle, Eugene S. & Gustafson, David & Beachy, Roger & Neslon, Gerald C. & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Palazzo, Amanda, 2013. "US food security and climate change: Agricultural futures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-41.
    16. Shenggen Fan, 2016. "A Nexus Approach to Food, Water, and Energy: Sustainably Meeting Asia’s Future Food and Nutrition Requirements," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 297-311.
    17. Hassan, Shuaib M. & Ikuenobe, Celestine E. & Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S., 2013. "Nigeria," IFPRI book chapters, in: Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Zougmore, Robert & Roy-Macauley, Harold (ed.), West African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis, chapter 10, pages 259-290, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Jaume Freire-González & Christopher A. Decker & Jim W. Hall, 2017. "A Scenario-Based Framework for Assessing the Economic Impacts of Potential Droughts," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 1-27, October.
    19. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk, 2010. "Droughts and floods in Malawi," IFPRI discussion papers 962, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Conde, Sidafa & Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S., 2013. "Guinea," IFPRI book chapters, in: Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Zougmore, Robert & Roy-Macauley, Harold (ed.), West African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis, chapter 7, pages 173-202, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Development; flood; food security; Growth; Hunger;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.