IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Climate change and floods in Yemen: Impacts on food security and options for adaptation

  • Wiebelt, Manfred
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Ecker, Olivier
  • Al-Riffai, Perrihan
  • Robertson, Richard
  • Thiele, Rainer

This paper uses both a global and local perspective to assess the impacts of climate change on the Yemeni economy, agriculture, and household income and food security. The major impact channels of climate change are through changing world food prices as a result of global food scarcities, long-term local yield changes as a result of temperature and rainfall variations, and damages and losses of cropland, fruit trees, livestock, and infrastructure as a result of natural disasters such as recurrent storms and floods. Moreover, spatial variation in climate change impacts within Yemen means that such effects can vary across subnational regions. We develop a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model with six agroecological zones to capture linkages between climate change, production, and household incomes. We also capture changes in per capita calorie consumption in response to changing household expenditure for assessing changes in people's hunger situation as a measure for food security. Given the high uncertainty surrounding future global food prices and local yields, all simulations are run under two global climate scenarios. The results of the CGE simulations suggest that climate-change-induced higher global prices for food will lower Yemen's overall GDP growth, raise agricultural GDP, decrease real household incomes, and increase the number of hungry people. Local impacts of climate change are different for the two climate scenarios. Overall, the long-term implications of climate change (local and global) lead to a total accumulated reduction of household welfare of between US$5.7 and $9.2 billion by 2050 under MIR or CSI conditions, respectively. Moreover, between 80,000 and 270,000 people could go hungry due to climate change. Rural households are harder hit than urban households, and among the rural households the non-farm households suffer most. This household group is projected to lose an accumulated 3.5 to 5.7 billion US$ as a consequence of longer term climate change by 2050. In addition to the longer-term climate change effects, climate variability is shown to induce heavy economic losses and spikes in food insecurity. The impact assessment of the October 2008 tropical storm and floods in the Wadi Hadramout puts the total cumulated real income loss over the period 2008-12 at 180 percent of pre-flood agricultural value added. Due to the direct flood loss, farmers in the flooding areas suffer most in the year of the flood occurrence, where the percentage of hungry people living from farming spiked by about 15 percentage points as an immediate result of the flood. Action to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and variability should to be taken on the global and local level. A global action plan for improving food security combined with a better integration of climate change in national development strategies, agricultural and rural policies, and disaster risk management and social protection policies will be keys for improving the resilience of Yemen and Yemenis to climate change.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp01139.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 1139.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1139
Contact details of provider: Postal: 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006
Phone: 202-862-5600
Fax: 202-467-4439
Web page: http://www.ifpri.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521744447 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Boyd, Roy & Ibarrarán, Maria E., 2009. "Extreme climate events and adaptation: an exploratory analysis of drought in Mexico," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 371-395, June.
  4. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Funes, Jose & Yu, Bingxin, 2010. "Food as the basis for development and security: A strategy for Yemen," IFPRI discussion papers 1036, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  5. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley, 2006. "An entropy approach to spatial disaggregation of agricultural production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 329-347, October.
  6. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Economic transformation in theory and practice: What are the messages for Africa?," IFPRI discussion papers 797, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  8. Horridge, Mark & Madden, John & Wittwer, Glyn, 2005. "The impact of the 2002-2003 drought on Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-308, April.
  9. Breisinger, Clemens & Zhu, Tingju & Al Riffai, Perrihan & Nelson, Gerald & Robertson, Richard & Funes, Jose & Verner, Dorte, 2011. "Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation:," IFPRI discussion papers 1091, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  10. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & Bachu, Murthy & Van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2011. "The economic costs of extreme weather events: a hydrometeorological CGE analysis for Malawi," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 177-198, April.
  11. Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Hai, Nguyen Manh, 2010. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation," IFPRI discussion papers 1015, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.