Climate change and floods in Yemen: Impacts on food security and options for adaptation
This paper uses both a global and local perspective to assess the impacts of climate change on the Yemeni economy, agriculture, and household income and food security. The major impact channels of climate change are through changing world food prices as a result of global food scarcities, long-term local yield changes as a result of temperature and rainfall variations, and damages and losses of cropland, fruit trees, livestock, and infrastructure as a result of natural disasters such as recurrent storms and floods. Moreover, spatial variation in climate change impacts within Yemen means that such effects can vary across subnational regions. We develop a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model with six agroecological zones to capture linkages between climate change, production, and household incomes. We also capture changes in per capita calorie consumption in response to changing household expenditure for assessing changes in people's hunger situation as a measure for food security. Given the high uncertainty surrounding future global food prices and local yields, all simulations are run under two global climate scenarios. The results of the CGE simulations suggest that climate-change-induced higher global prices for food will lower Yemen's overall GDP growth, raise agricultural GDP, decrease real household incomes, and increase the number of hungry people. Local impacts of climate change are different for the two climate scenarios. Overall, the long-term implications of climate change (local and global) lead to a total accumulated reduction of household welfare of between US$5.7 and $9.2 billion by 2050 under MIR or CSI conditions, respectively. Moreover, between 80,000 and 270,000 people could go hungry due to climate change. Rural households are harder hit than urban households, and among the rural households the non-farm households suffer most. This household group is projected to lose an accumulated 3.5 to 5.7 billion US$ as a consequence of longer term climate change by 2050. In addition to the longer-term climate change effects, climate variability is shown to induce heavy economic losses and spikes in food insecurity. The impact assessment of the October 2008 tropical storm and floods in the Wadi Hadramout puts the total cumulated real income loss over the period 2008-12 at 180 percent of pre-flood agricultural value added. Due to the direct flood loss, farmers in the flooding areas suffer most in the year of the flood occurrence, where the percentage of hungry people living from farming spiked by about 15 percentage points as an immediate result of the flood. Action to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and variability should to be taken on the global and local level. A global action plan for improving food security combined with a better integration of climate change in national development strategies, agricultural and rural policies, and disaster risk management and social protection policies will be keys for improving the resilience of Yemen and Yemenis to climate change.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006|
Web page: http://www.ifpri.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Hai, Nguyen Manh, 2010. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation," IFPRI discussion papers 1015, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Funes, Jose & Yu, Bingxin, 2010. "Food as the basis for development and security: A strategy for Yemen," IFPRI discussion papers 1036, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Breisinger, Clemens & Zhu, Tingju & Al Riffai, Perrihan & Nelson, Gerald & Robertson, Richard & Funes, Jose & Verner, Dorte, 2011. "Global and local economic impacts of climate change in Syria and options for adaptation:," IFPRI discussion papers 1091, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Boyd, Roy & Ibarrarán, Maria E., 2009. "Extreme climate events and adaptation: an exploratory analysis of drought in Mexico," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(03), pages 371-395, June.
- Horridge, Mark & Madden, John & Wittwer, Glyn, 2005. "The impact of the 2002-2003 drought on Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-308, April.
- Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & Bachu, Murthy & Van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2011. "The economic costs of extreme weather events: a hydrometeorological CGE analysis for Malawi," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 177-198, April.
- Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Economic transformation in theory and practice: What are the messages for Africa?," IFPRI discussion papers 797, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley, 2006. "An entropy approach to spatial disaggregation of agricultural production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 329-347, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.