Modeling growth options and structural change to reach middle income country status: The case of Ghana
This paper develops a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to evaluate sources of accelerated growth and structural transformation. It goes beyond stylized and aggregate general equilibrium models by examining country-specific growth options to reach middle income country (MIC) status. We first examine a set of countries that have successfully transformed their economies to inform model and scenario building. We then simulate potentials and trade-offs of selected sector- and factor-specific growth paths for Ghana. Results show that no individual sector's growth acceleration is sufficient for Ghana to reach MIC status by 2015. Manufacturing growth is constrained by its high dependency on agricultural inputs indicating the need for diversification. Services can support rather than drive economy-wide growth. Agriculture must remain the mainstay of economy-wide growth. While this will delay structural change in sectoral composition, it demonstrates that emphasizing agriculture is a viable option for some countries to reach MIC status.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke & Jørn Rattsø & Xinshen Diao, 2001.
"International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis,"
Working Paper Series
2202, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
- Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll, 2005. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 429-450, April.
- Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 2003.
"Tropics, germs, and crops: how endowments influence economic development,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-39, January.
- William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development," Working Papers 15, Center for Global Development.
- William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 9106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kuznets, Simon, 1971.
"Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections,"
Nobel Prize in Economics documents
1971-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James & Al-Hassan, Ramatu M., 2008. "Agriculture for development in Ghana: New opportunities and challenges," IFPRI discussion papers 784, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Delgado, Christopher L. & Hopkins, Jane & Kelly , Valerie & Hazell, P. B. R. & McKenna, Anna A. & Gruhn, Peter & Hojjati, Behjat & Sil, Jayashree & Courbois, Claude, 1998. "Agricultural growth linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa:," Research reports 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas & Preckel, Paul & Eales, James, 2003.
"Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems,"
GTAP Working Papers
1182, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25905, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, Peter & Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2006.
"The role of agriculture in development: implications for Sub-Saharan Africa,"
DSGD discussion papers
29, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, P.B.R. & Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2007. "The role of agriculture in development: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," Research reports 153, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Xavier Irz & Terry Roe, 2005. "Seeds of growth? Agricultural productivity and the transitional dynamics of the Ramsey model," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 143-165, June.
- Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-452, May.
- Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004.
"How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?,"
NBER Working Papers
10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
- Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," GTAP Working Papers 1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Allan G. B. Fisher, 1939. "Production, Primary, Secondary And Tertiary," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 15(1), pages 24-38, 06.
- Haggblade, Steven & Hazell, Peter B. & Brown, James, 1988.
"Farm-nonfarm linkages in rural sub-Saharan Africa,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
6, The World Bank.
- Nicholas Stern & Jean-Jacques Dethier & F. Halsey Rogers, 2006. "Growth and Empowerment: Making Development Happen," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262693461.
- Gohin, Alexandre, 2005. "The specification of price and income elasticities in computable general equilibrium models: An application of latent separability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 905-925, September.
- Syrquin, Moshe, 1988. "Patterns of structural change," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 203-273 Elsevier.
- Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Economic transformation in theory and practice: What are the messages for Africa?," IFPRI discussion papers 797, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:2:p:514-525. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.