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Economywide impact of avian flu in Ghana: A dynamic CGE model analysis

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  • Diao, Xinshen

Abstract

"We use a dynamic CGE model to quantitatively assess the economywide impact of HPAI in Ghana. The likely effect of an avian flu outbreak is modeled as demand or supply shocks to the poultry sector. Our analysis shows that, while chicken is a quite small sector of the Ghanaian economy, the shock in chicken demand due to consumers' anxieties is the dominant factor in causing chicken production to fall. The indirect effect on soybean and maize that are used as chicken feed is also large. Under the worst-case scenario, soybean production will fall by 37 percent and maize by 6.4 percent. However, the economywide impact on both AgGDP and GDP is very small. In the worst-case scenario, in which chicken production falls by 70 percent in 2011, AgGDP falls by only 0.4 percent and GDP is almost unchanged. However, the livelihood impacts of a HPAI outbreak could be significant for some sections of the population in Ghana particularly those involved in the poultry sector. Micro-level analysis of chicken producers' livelihood, therefore, is necessary." from authors' abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Diao, Xinshen, 2009. "Economywide impact of avian flu in Ghana: A dynamic CGE model analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 866, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:866
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    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp00866.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, Peter & Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2006. "The role of agriculture in development: implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," DSGD discussion papers 29, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Vanzetti, David, 2007. "Chicken Supreme: How the Indonesian Poultry Sector Can Survive Avian Influenza," 2007 Conference (51st), February 13-16, 2007, Queenstown, New Zealand 10384, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James, 2009. "Modeling growth options and structural change to reach middle income country status: The case of Ghana," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 514-525, March.
    5. Gohin, Alexandre, 2005. "The specification of price and income elasticities in computable general equilibrium models: An application of latent separability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 905-925, September.
    6. Diao, Xinshen & Rattsø, Jørn & Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll, 2002. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand," TMD discussion papers 89, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    8. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James & Yu, Bingxin & Kolavalli, Shashidhara, 2008. "Accelerating growth and structural transformation: Ghana's options for reaching middle-income country status," IFPRI discussion papers 750, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensah-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2013. "The impact of avian flu on livelihood outcomes in Africa: evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(4), October.
    2. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensah-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia K. & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2010. "Investigating the Role of Poultry in Livelihoods and the Impact of HPAI on Livelihoods Outcomes in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 97084, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE);Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Avian influenza Developing countries; General equilibrium model; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling; Food safety; Water quality; Water policies;

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