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Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya:

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  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high-risk countries. This raises concerns about the effect an outbreak could have on economic development. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulate potential outbreaks of different severities, durations, and geographic spreads. Results indicate that even a severe outbreak does not greatly reduce economic growth. It does, however, significantly worsen poverty, because poultry is an important income source for poor farmers and a major food item in consumers' baskets. Avian flu therefore does pose a threat to future development in Kenya. Reducing the duration and geographic spread of an outbreak is found to substantially lower economic losses. However, losses are still incurred when poultry demand falls, even without a confirmed outbreak but only the threat of an outbreak. Our findings support monitoring poultry production and trade, responding rapidly to possible infections, and improving both farmers' and consumers' awareness of avian flu.

Suggested Citation

  • Thurlow, James, 2010. "Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya:," IFPRI discussion papers 951, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:951
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vanzetti, David, 2007. "Chicken Supreme: How the Indonesian Poultry Sector Can Survive Avian Influenza," 2007 Conference (51st), February 13-16, 2007, Queenstown, New Zealand 10384, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Thurlow, James & Kiringai, Jane & Gautam, Madhur, 2007. "Rural investment to accelerate growth and poverty reduction in Kenya:," IFPRI discussion papers 723, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Liangzhi You & Xinshen Diao, 2007. "Assessing the Potential Impact of Avian Influenza on Poultry in West Africa: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 348-367, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2010. "Investigating the role of poultry in livelihoods and the impact of avian flu on livelihoods outcomes in Africa," IFPRI discussion papers 1011, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensah-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2013. "The impact of avian flu on livelihood outcomes in Africa: evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(4), October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Avian influenza Developing countries; avian flu; economic growth; Poverty; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model; Development strategies;

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