Assessing Development Strategies to Achieve the MDGs in Asia. Macroeconomic Strategies of MDG Achievement in the Kyrgyz Republic
The paper aims at analyzing macroeconomic and financial strategies, which are to ensure achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in the Kyrgyz Republic. The paper is based on results of simulations generated through the application of standard MAMS, a computable general equilibrium model adjusted to the country situation and calibrated with data of Kyrgyzstan. MAMS-model-based simulation results indicate that a continuation of the current policies under the baseline scenario would allow for achieving MDG1 (poverty reduction) only; the country would fall short of the targets for other MDGs. In order to achieve all MDGs, the country needs to increase government spending on MDG-relevant sectors (education, health, water and sanitation) by 7.8-8.1% of GDP per annum in comparison to the baseline scenario. The scenario that combines increased taxes and aid inflows seems to be the most realistic, but it would still require very substantial increases in tax collections and grant aid. The situation is going to be easier, if the economic growth rates 2011-2015 would be higher than 7% per annum. This is possible, if the government would be more successful in implementation of structural reforms, FDI and private domestic investments attraction and mobilization of resources for infrastructure development. Another possible way out is a substantial increase in government spending efficiency allowing for receiving higher social returns for money spent.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Aleja Jana Pawla II, 61, 01-031 Warsaw|
Phone: +48 22 206 29 00
Fax: +48 22 206 29 01
Web page: http://www.case-research.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Garbis Iradian, 2007. "Rapid Growth in the CIS: Is It Sustainable?," wiiw Research Reports 336, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003.
"Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
2003-572, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Abdur R Chowdhury, 2004. "Private Savings in Transition Economies: Are there Terms of Trade Shocks?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(4), pages 487-514, December.
- World Bank, 2003. "Kyrgyz Republic : Enhancing Pro-poor Growth," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14641, The World Bank.
- Jeffrey Round, 2003. "Constructing SAMs for Development Policy Analysis: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 161-183.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0095. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Agata Kwiek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.