General equilibrium modelling in South Africa: What the future holds
This paper provides an overview of the main research contributions of the past decade using general equilibrium models to analyse agricultural issues in South Africa. The methodological developments since the change to democracy ten years ago are viewed in the context of developments in this area of research carried out internationally. It will be shown in this paper that the modelling and computing techniques have vastly improved during the past decade, both in an ongoing attempt to refine existing models, and in an attempt to extend the modelling framework to make provision for issues that cannot be sufficiently captured in the standard comparative static models. These extensions include dynamic modelling, global modelling, environmental modelling and micro simulation. The paper highlights the non-trivial data requirements of this type of modelling. The national statistical agency, Statistics South Africa, supports general equilibrium modellers by their development of input-output tables, social accounting matrices and, more recently, supply and use tables. This decade has therefore witnessed an improvement in the data for the construction of national level social accounting matrices. Requirements for provincial level data have however not been met sufficiently, posing huge challenges for provincial and regional modelling. The lack of primary data has however stimulated development of advanced data estimation techniques that can be applied to overcome this data challenge. Application of general equilibrium techniques to analyse agricultural issues in South Africa still remains limited and substantial support and training of researcher is still needed to expand domestic capacity in this field of research.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wiig, Henrik & Aune, Jens B. & Glomsrod, Solveig, 2001. "Structural adjustment and soil degradation in Tanzania A CGE model approach with endogenous soil productivity," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 24(3), March.
- Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2002. "Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 247-272, March.
- Richard Dickens & Stephen Machin & Alan Manning & David Metcalf & Jonathan Wadsworth & Stephen Woodland, 1995.
"The Effect Of Minimum Wages On Uk Agriculture,"
Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19.
- Michael Lahr & Louis de Mesnard, 2004.
"Biproportional Techniques in Input-Output Analysis: Table Updating and Structural Analysis,"
GE, Growth, Math methods
- Michael Lahr & Louis de Mesnard, 2004. "Biproportional Techniques in Input-Output Analysis: Table Updating and Structural Analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 115-134.
- Perroni, Carlo & Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995.
"Regular flexibility of nested CES functions,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 335-343, February.
- John Cockburn, 2004.
"Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis,"
Development and Comp Systems
- John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2002-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Roland-Holst, D.W. & Sancho, F., 1991.
"Modeling Proces in a Sam Structure,"
UFAE and IAE Working Papers
189.92, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Wiig, Henrik & Aune, Jens B. & Glomsrod, Solveig & Iversen, Vegard, 2001. "Structural adjustment and soil degradation in Tanzania: A CGE model approach with endogenous soil productivity," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 263-287, March.
- Subramanian, Shankar & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1990. "The Transmission of Production Fluctuations and Technical Change in a Village Economy: A Social Accounting Matrix Approach," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 131-73, October.
- Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Prakash Raj Sapkota & John Cockburn, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Nepal: an Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2008-13, PEP-MPIA.
- Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1973. "General Equilibrium with Taxes: A Computational Procedure and an Existence Proof," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 475-89, October.
- McDonald, Scott, 2003. "The PROVIDE Project Standard Computable General Equilibrium Model," Technical Paper Series 15627, PROVIDE Project.
- Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-49, August.
- Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Jeffrey Round, 2003. "Constructing SAMs for Development Policy Analysis: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 161-183.
- Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 1999.
"Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach,"
TMD discussion papers
40, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 375-398, May.
- Hassan, Rashid M., 1997. "Trade liberalization and the environment: The case of agriculture in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 36(4), December.
- Devarajan, Shantayanan & Robinson, Sherman, 2002. "The influence of computable general equilibrium models on policy," TMD discussion papers 98, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
- Defourny, Jacques & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "Structural Path Analysis and Multiplier Decomposition within a Social Accounting Matrix Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 111-36, March.
- Stone, Richard, 1982. "Working with What We Have: How Can Existing Data Be Used in the Construction and Analysis of Socio-Demographic Matrices?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 28(3), pages 291-303, September.
- Go, Delfin S. & Kearney, Marna & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2005. "An Analysis of South Africa's Value Added Tax," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3671, The World Bank.
- Brown, Drusilla K., 1987. "Tariffs, the terms of trade, and national product differentiation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 503-526.
- Jones, Leroy P, 1976. "The Measurement of Hirschmanian Linkages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 323-33, May.
- Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2003. "Poverty-focused social accounting matrices for Tanzania," TMD discussion papers 112, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947 Elsevier.
- SCOTT McDONALD & CECILIA PUNT, 2004. "Some Welfare Implications Of A Land Tax On The Western Cape," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(4), pages 808-833, 09.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:31721. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.