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HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic prospects for Mozambique

  • Arndt, Channing

As in other countries in the southern Africa region, a human development catastrophe is unfolding in Mozambique. Recently released data estimate HIV prevalence rates amongst the adult population in the year 2000 at around 12% with substantial regional variation..... This paper is structured as follows. Section two discusses the implications of recently released HIV prevalence rates and provides more detail on the expected demographic impacts of the pandemic using available demographic projections. Section three reviews literature focusing on macroeconomic impacts. Section four formally analyzes implications for human capital accumulation. Section five presents the economy-wide modeling approach including critical assumptions and model scenarios. Section six discusses the major results. Section seven summarizes and section eight considers both reactive and preventive policy implications.....[The paper concludes that] the economic analysis and related policy implications provide strong support for adoption of both reactive and preventive policies. While the pandemic cannot be avoided, much can be done to reduce its harshness and duration. Some relatively broad policy options were also presented; however, as usual, the devils are in the details. Moving beyond these general policy ideas (both reactive and preventive) to real policy initiatives will require careful thought particularly with respect to issues of implementation.

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Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series TMD discussion papers with number 88.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:88
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  1. Arndt, Channing & Tarp, Finn, 1999. "Stabilization and Structual Adjustment in Mozambique: An Appraisal," MPRA Paper 62443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  6. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
  7. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 375-398, May.
  8. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
  9. Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, October.
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  10. Lockheed, Marlaine E & Jamison, Dean T & Lau, Lawrence J, 1980. "Farmer Education and Farm Efficiency: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 37-76, October.
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  14. Mayer, David, 2001. "The Long-Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1025-1033, June.
  15. Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  16. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(2), pages 173-89, May.
  17. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October.
  18. Tarp, Finn & Arndt, Channing & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2002. "Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective," Research reports 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  19. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
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  21. Pinckney, Thomas, 1997. "Does Education Increase Agricultural Productivity in Africa?," Occasional Paper Series No. 7 198196, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  22. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
  23. Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
  24. Simon Gregson & Heather Waddell & Stephen Chandiwana, 2001. "School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from discord to harmony?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 467-485.
  25. Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947 Elsevier.
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