IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic prospects for Mozambique

  • Arndt, Channing

As in other countries in the southern Africa region, a human development catastrophe is unfolding in Mozambique. Recently released data estimate HIV prevalence rates amongst the adult population in the year 2000 at around 12% with substantial regional variation..... This paper is structured as follows. Section two discusses the implications of recently released HIV prevalence rates and provides more detail on the expected demographic impacts of the pandemic using available demographic projections. Section three reviews literature focusing on macroeconomic impacts. Section four formally analyzes implications for human capital accumulation. Section five presents the economy-wide modeling approach including critical assumptions and model scenarios. Section six discusses the major results. Section seven summarizes and section eight considers both reactive and preventive policy implications.....[The paper concludes that] the economic analysis and related policy implications provide strong support for adoption of both reactive and preventive policies. While the pandemic cannot be avoided, much can be done to reduce its harshness and duration. Some relatively broad policy options were also presented; however, as usual, the devils are in the details. Moving beyond these general policy ideas (both reactive and preventive) to real policy initiatives will require careful thought particularly with respect to issues of implementation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Page not found. ( [307 Temporary Redirect]--> If this is indeed the case, please notify ()

Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series TMD discussion papers with number 88.

in new window

Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:88
Contact details of provider: Postal: 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006
Phone: 202-862-5600
Fax: 202-467-4439
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Tarp, Finn & Arndt, Channing & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2002. "Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective," Research reports 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995. "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Papers 118, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  3. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Arndt, Channing & Tarp, Finn, 1999. "Stabilization and Structual Adjustment in Mozambique: An Appraisal," MPRA Paper 62443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Mayer, David, 2001. "The Long-Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1025-1033, June.
  6. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 1999. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," TMD discussion papers 40, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  7. Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  8. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
  9. Handa, Sudhanshu & Simler, Kenneth, 2000. "Quality or quantity?," FCND discussion papers 83, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  10. Thomas W. Hertel & Kyle Stiegert & Harry Vroomen, 1996. "Nitrogen-Land Substitution in Corn Production: A Reconciliation of Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 30-40.
  11. Simon Gregson & Heather Waddell & Stephen Chandiwana, 2001. "School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from discord to harmony?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 467-485.
  12. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1996. "Saving and Investment: Paradigms, Puzzles, Policies," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 11(1), pages 87-117, February.
  14. Krugman, Paul R., 2000. "Technology, trade and factor prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 51-71, February.
  15. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, December.
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, December.
  16. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
  17. Pinckney, Thomas, 1997. "Does Education Increase Agricultural Productivity in Africa?," Occasional Paper Series No. 7 198196, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  18. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
  19. Simon Dixon & Scott McDonald & Jennifer Roberts, 2001. "AIDS and economic growth in Africa: a panel data analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 411-426.
  20. Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
  21. Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(2), pages 173-89, May.
  22. Lockheed, Marlaine E & Jamison, Dean T & Lau, Lawrence J, 1980. "Farmer Education and Farm Efficiency: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 37-76, October.
  23. Cuddington, John T. & Hancock, John D. & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1994. "A dynamic aggregative model of the AIDS epidemic with possible policy interventions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 473-496, October.
  24. Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947 Elsevier.
  25. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.