HIV/AIDS and labor markets in Tanzania
We analyze the implications of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Tanzania for labor markets and human capital accumulation. Three analyses are undertaken. First, we examine the 2000/01 Labor Force Survey and compare it with the 1990/91 Labor Force Survey. Since these two surveys encompass a period where accumulated AIDS deaths increased dramatically, their comparison provides an opportunity to make inferences about the impact of HIV/AIDS over that period. Second, we study rates of human capital accumulation, proxied by educational attainment, for the period 1991 to 2000. While the most obvious impact of HIV/AIDS on human capital comes about through the deaths of skilled people, this might not be the greatest concern in terms of long run economic impact. In poor countries with low levels of human capital, implications for rates of human capital accumulation might be of greater concern. We estimate education transition matrices to assess human capital accumulation over the 1990s and assess the trends in transition probabilities and regional variations in these trends. Finally, we analyze the implications of skills upgrading using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Tanzania. We find that the age structure of the labor force is changing with 10-14 year olds and juveniles comprising a significantly larger share and prime age adults aged 20-35 a smaller share compared with 1990/91. The growth in the child and juvenile labor force is matched by a trend towards an increased tendency to exit primary school and an overall lower share of children aged 5-14 enrolled in primary school. We conclude that workforce experience and rates of human capital accumulation are declining with HIV/AIDS being a prime factor underlying these trends. The CGE analysis indicates that skills upgrading of the population has particularly large first order (segmented rural and urban labor markets) impacts on the agricultural sector since the large majority of the population is rural. If migration is permitted, the enhanced productivity of a more skilled rural labor force permits substantial growth in agricultural and non-agricultural output generating a development pattern similar to those advocated by Mellor (1976) and Adelman et al. (1989). Reduced rates of skills upgrading would slow these trends.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006|
Web page: http://www.ifpri.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jensen, Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "Agricultural Technology and Marketing Margins in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 29820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
- Hideo Akabayashi & George Psacharopoulos, 1999. "The trade-off between child labour and human capital formation: A Tanzanian case study," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 120-140.
- Karantininis, Kostas, 2002.
"Information-based estimators for the non-stationary transition probability matrix: an application to the Danish pork industry,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 275-290, March.
- Karantininis, Kostas, 2001. "Information Based Estimators for the Non-Stationary Transition Probability Matrix: An Application to the Danish Pork Industry," Unit of Economics Working papers 24198, Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Food and Resource Economic Institute.
- Government of the United Republic of Tanzania & World Bank, 2002. "Tanzania at the Turn of the Century : Background Papers and Statistics," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14054, April.
- M Lundberg & M Over & P Mujinja, 2000.
"Sources of Financial Assistance for Households Suffering an Adult Death in Kagera, Tanzania,"
South African Journal of Economics,
Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 420-443, December.
- Lundberg, Mattias & Over, Mead & Mujinja, Phare, 2000. "Sources of financial assistance for households suffering an adult death in Kagera, Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2508, The World Bank.
- Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947 Elsevier.
- Amos Golan & Stephen Vogel, 2000. "Estimation of Non-Stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply-Side Information," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-471.
- Lockheed, Marlaine E & Jamison, Dean T & Lau, Lawrence J, 1980. "Farmer Education and Farm Efficiency: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 37-76, October.
- Cuddington, John T, 1993. "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(2), pages 173-89, May.
- Simon Gregson & Heather Waddell & Stephen Chandiwana, 2001. "School education and HIV control in sub-Saharan Africa: from discord to harmony?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 467-485.
- Pinckney, Thomas C., 1997. "Does Education Increase Agricultural Productivity in Africa?," Occasional Paper Series No. 7 198196, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Psacharopoulos, George, 1994.
"Returns to investment in education: A global update,"
Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
- Psacharopoulos, George, 1993. "Returns to investment in education : a global update," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1067, The World Bank.
- Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
- Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.