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Dairy Farm Size Distribution in East and West: Evolution and Sensitivity to Structural and Policy Variables: Case-Studies of the Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary

Author

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  • Jongeneel, Roelof A.
  • Longworth, Natasha
  • Huettel, Silke

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamics in the farm size distribution for The Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary. A (non-)stationary Markov model approach is used. The transition probabilities are explained by a set of exogenous (policy) variables. The models are estimated using an information theoretical approach, including non-sample (prior) information. The models can be used to simulate the impact of alternative dairy policies on the dairy sector structure. For all countries there is an autonomous decline in farm numbers over time (implying increase in average farm size). This trend continues irrespective of the EU dairy policy type. For both Hungary and Poland the role of the subsistence sector is expected to substantially decrease over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Longworth, Natasha & Huettel, Silke, 2005. "Dairy Farm Size Distribution in East and West: Evolution and Sensitivity to Structural and Policy Variables: Case-Studies of the Netherlands, Germany, Poland and Hungary," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24772, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24772
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24772
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amos Golan & Stephen Vogel, 2000. "Estimation of Non-Stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply-Side Information," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-471.
    2. MacRae, Elizabeth Chase, 1977. "Estimation of Time-Varying Markov Processes with Aggregate Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 183-198, January.
    3. Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Slangen, Louis H.G., 2005. "Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors," 94th Seminar, April 9-10, 2005, Ashford, UK 24441, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Jongeneel, Roelof A. & Polman, Nico B.P. & Slangen, Louis H.G., 2005. "Explaining the Changing Institutional Organisation of Dutch Farms: The Role of Farmer's Attitude, Advisory Network and Structural Factors," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24526, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Jeremy D. Foltz, 2004. "Entry, Exit, and Farm Size: Assessing an Experiment in Dairy Price Policy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 594-604.
    7. Ellen Goddard & Alfons Weersink & Kevin Chen & Calum G. Turvey, 1993. "Economics of Structural Change in Agriculture," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 41(4), pages 475-489, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zier, Patrick, 2013. "Econometric impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy in East German agriculture," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 71, number 71, December.

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