Agriculture Reform and Food Crisis in Syria: Impacts on Poverty and Inequality
The paper pursues a two-fold objective. From a methodological viewpoint it shows how to carry out an impacts evaluation of exogenous shocks on poverty and inequality in a context characterized by out-of-equilibrium, poorly-adjusting markets, as it is the case in many developing countries, using a social account matrix framework. From an empirical viewpoint it provides an assessment of how the cereal price spikes of 2007-2008 and the global recession of 2008-2009 have impacted the welfare of Syrian households and how did they compound with the on-going agricultural sector liberalisation implemented by the Government of Syria over the last decade. This will contribute to shed some lights on the economic background behind the spreading of unrest across the country over the last year or so. The results show that liberalisation impacts are very different and largely affected by the adopted budget closure rules. While reforms aiming at reducing agricultural market distortions (such as production subsidies and price support for strategic crops) could generally have a positive effect on both growth and poverty and inequality, the elimination of food security interventions (such as food stamp schemes) determines an adverse distributional impact against rural household and an increase of poverty. The recent macroeconomic shocks (food price crisis and the global recession) determined a generalized poverty increase and showed an income distribution bias against rural households. Two fundamental policy implications can be drawn by this study. First, the liberalisation of agricultural sector shows a significant growth potential and is likely to determine positive effects on poverty through a generalised increase of incomes as well as public budget savings that could be used for pursuing other policy goals. Second, in the short-run there is a structural trade-off between equity improvements and poverty alleviation: the policy options that will more likely reduce absolute poverty show undesirable distributive biases (both on overall inequality and on rural households vis-à-vis urban households). This calls for a careful targeting of how to use budget savings generated by agriculture liberalisation.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via delle Pandette 9 50127 - Firenze - Italy|
Phone: +39 055 2759582
Web page: http://www.disei.unifi.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arvind Panagariya, 2005. "Agricultural Liberalisation and the Least Developed Countries: Six Fallacies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1277-1299, 09.
- Roland-Holst, David W & Sancho, Ferran, 1992.
"Relative Income Determination in the United States: A Social Accounting Perspective,"
Review of Income and Wealth,
International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 38(3), pages 311-327, September.
- Roland-Holst, D.W. & Sancho, F., 1991. "Ralative Income Determination in the United States: A Social Accounting Perspective," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 188.92, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Frank Ellis & H Ade Freeman, 2004. "Rural Livelihoods and Poverty Reduction Strategies in Four African Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 1-30.
- Francois Bourguignon & Victoria Levin & David Rosenblatt, 2004. "Declining International Inequality and Economic Divergence: Reviewing the Evidence Through Different Lenses," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 100, pages 13-26.
- Erik Dietzenbacher, 2002. "Interregional Multipliers: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 125-136.
- Margaret S. McMillan & Alix Peterson Zwane & Nava Ashraf, 2007. "My Policies or Yours: Does OECD Support for Agriculture Increase Poverty in Developing Countries?," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 183-240 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Margaret McMillan & Alix Peterson Zwane & Nava Ashraf, 2005. "My Policies or Yours: Does OECD Support for Agriculture Increase Poverty in Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lewis, Blane D. & Thorbecke, Erik, 1992. "District-level economic linkages in Kenya: Evidence based on a small regional social accounting matrix," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 881-897, June.
- Jeffrey Round, 2003. "Constructing SAMs for Development Policy Analysis: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 161-183.
- Roland-Holst, David W & Sancho, Ferran, 1995. "Modeling Prices in a SAM Structure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 361-371, May.
- Roland-Holst, D.W. & Sancho, F., 1991. "Modeling Proces in a Sam Structure," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 189.92, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Anderson, Kym, 2009. "Krueger/Schiff/Valdés Revisited: Agricultural Price and Trade Policy Reform in Developing Countries since 1960," CEPR Discussion Papers 7601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anderson, Kym, 2010. "Krueger/Schiff/Valdes revisited : agricultural price and trade policy reform in developing countries since 1960," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5165, The World Bank.
- Kym Anderson, 2010. "Krueger/Schiff/Valdes Revisited: Agricultural Price and Trade Policy Reform in Developing Countries since 1960," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2010-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Valenzuela, Ernesto & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Anderson, Kym, 2008. "General equilibrium effects of price distortions on global markets, farm incomes and welfare," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48630, World Bank.
- Margaret Grosh & Paul Glewwe, 2000. "Designing Household Survey Questionnaires for Developing Countries : Lessons from 15 Years of the Living Standards Measurement Study, Volume 2," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15194, July.
- Krueger, Anne O & Schiff, Maurice & Valdes, Alberto, 1988. "Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries: Measuring the Effect of Sectoral and Economywide Policies," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(3), pages 255-271, September.
- Minot, Nicholas & Chemingui, Mohamed & Thomas, Marcelle & Dewina, Reno & Orden, David, 2007. "Impact of trade liberalization on agriculture in the near East and North Africa:," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number Nenatrade:2007.
- International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Syrian Arab Republic; 2009 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; and Public Information Notice," IMF Staff Country Reports 10/86, International Monetary Fund.
- Pyatt, F Graham & Round, Jeffery I, 1979. "Accounting and Fixed Price Multipliers in a Social Accounting Matrix Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 850-873, December.
- Rose, Adam, 1995. "Input-output economics and computable general equilibrium models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 295-304, August.
- Ann Harrison, 2007. "Globalization and Poverty: An Introduction," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 1-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schiff, Maurice & Valdes, Alberto, 2002. "Agriculture and the macroeconomy, with emphasis on developing countries," Handbook of Agricultural Economics,in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 27, pages 1421-1454 Elsevier. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2012_19.rdf. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giorgio Ricchiuti)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.