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Climate change, agricultural production and food security: Evidence from Yemen

Author

Listed:
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Ecker, Olivier
  • Al-Riffai, Perrihan
  • Robertson, Richard
  • Thiele, Rainer
  • Wiebelt, Manfred

Abstract

This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes and food security. Rural nonfarm households are hit hardest as they tend to be net food consumers with high food budget shares, but farm households also experience real income losses given that many of them are net buyers of food. The impacts of local climate change are less clear given the ambiguous predictions of global climate models (GCMs) with respect to future rainfall patterns in Yemen. Local climate change impacts manifest itself in long term yield changes, which differ between two alternative climate scenarios considered, with implications for income and nutrition.

Suggested Citation

  • Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2011. "Climate change, agricultural production and food security: Evidence from Yemen," Kiel Working Papers 1747, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1747
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/54942/1/680293183.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert P. King & Derek Byerlee, 1978. "Factor Intensities and Locational Linkages of Rural Consumption Patterns in Sierra Leone," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(2), pages 197-206.
    2. Yu, Bingxin & Zhu, Tingju & Breisinger, Clemens & Hai, Nguyen Manh, 2010. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation: The case of Vietnam," IFPRI discussion papers 1015, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen, 2008. "Economic transformation in theory and practice: What are the messages for Africa?," IFPRI discussion papers 797, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Clemens Breisinger & Tingju Zhu & Perrihan Al Riffai & Gerald Nelson & Richard Robertson & Jose Funes & Dorte Verner, 2013. "Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Syria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-30.
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    1. Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2012. "The impact of the 2008 Hadramout flash flood in Yemen on economic performance and nutrition: A simulation analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1758, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; agriculture; food security; model-based assessment; Yemen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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