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Agriculture and adaptation in Bangladesh: Current and projected impacts of climate change:


  • Thomas, Timothy S.
  • Mainuddin, Khandaker
  • Chiang, Catherine
  • Rahman, Aminur
  • Haque, Anwarul
  • Islam, Nazria
  • Quasem, Saad
  • Sun, Yun


The goal of this research was to examine the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh, and develop recommendations to policymakers to help farmers adapt to the changes. In this study, we use climate data from four general circulation models (GCMs) to evaluate the impact of climate change on agriculture in Bangladesh by 2050. We use the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) crop modeling software to evaluate crop yields, first for the 1950 to 2000 period (actual climate) and then for the climates given by the four GCMs for 2050. We evaluate crop yields at 1,789 different points in Bangladesh, using a grid composed of roughly 10 kilometer (km) squares, for 8 different crops in 2000 and 2050. For each crop, we search for the best cultivar (variety) at each square, rather than limiting our analysis to a single variety for all locations. We also search for the best planting month in each square. In addition, we explore potential gains in changing fertilizer levels and in using irrigation to compensate for rainfall changes. This analysis indicates that when practiced together, using cultivars better suited for climate change and adjusting planting dates can lessen the impacts of climate change on yields, especially for rice, and in some cases actually result in higher yields. In addition, the analysis shows that losses in yield due to climate change can be compensated for, for many crops, by increasing the availability of nitrogen in the soil.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas, Timothy S. & Mainuddin, Khandaker & Chiang, Catherine & Rahman, Aminur & Haque, Anwarul & Islam, Nazria & Quasem, Saad & Sun, Yun, 2013. "Agriculture and adaptation in Bangladesh: Current and projected impacts of climate change:," IFPRI discussion papers 1281, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1281

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar, 2009. "Climate Change and Agriculture," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12990.
    2. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Peter & Ali, Snigdha, 2014. "Exploring local perceptions of climate change impact and adaptation in rural Bangladesh:," IFPRI discussion papers 1322, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Aberman, Noora-Lisa & Ali, Snigdha & Behrman, Julia A. & Bryan, Elizabeth & Davis, Peter & Donnelly, Aiveen & Gathaara, Violet & Koné, Daouda & Nganga, Teresiah & Ngugi, Jane & Okoba, Barrack & Ronco, 2015. "Climate, change adaptation assets and group-based approaches: Gendered perceptions from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, and Kenya:," IFPRI discussion papers 1412, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. repec:taf:jdevst:v:52:y:2016:i:3:p:377-395 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Susmita Dasgupta & Md. Moqbul Hossain & Mainul Huq & David Wheeler, 2016. "Facing The Hungry Tide: Climate Change, Livelihood Threats, And Household Responses In Coastal Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-25, August.
    5. Muntaha Rakib & Julia Anna Matz, 2016. "The Impact of Shocks on Gender-differentiated Asset Dynamics in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 377-395, March.
    6. Nazmul Huq & Jean Hugé & Emmanuel Boon & Animesh K. Gain, 2015. "Climate Change Impacts in Agricultural Communities in Rural Areas of Coastal Bangladesh: A Tale of Many Stories," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(7), pages 1-24, June.
    7. repec:eee:agisys:v:162:y:2018:i:c:p:107-122 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dasgupta, Susmita & Hossain, Md. Moqbul & Huq, Mainul & Wheeler, David, 2014. "Climate change, soil salinity, and the economics of high-yield rice production in coastal Bangladesh," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7140, The World Bank.

    More about this item


    Climate change; Impact model; Adaptation; Agricultural productivity; Crop yields; Varieties;

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