Vulnerability to Adverse Climate Change: Evidence from Rural Bangladesh

Rural households in Bangladesh are deemed vulnerable to adverse climate change; however, rigorous assessments of such ‘vulnerability’ remain limited. Using two-period survey data spanning from 2010 to 2012, this study examines the effects of extreme weather events on household vulnerability in rural Bangladesh. The results show that despite remarkable poverty mitigation over the past two decades, over half of the rural households in Bangladesh were still vulnerable to extreme poverty, due primarily to low expected future consumptions as opposed to the high volatility of daily expenditures. The analysis reveals that households that experienced natural disasters during 2010–2012 were more likely to be vulnerable to poverty in 2012 by 11.3 percentage points, primarily because weather shocks induced higher consumption variability. The results provide nuanced insights into which weather shocks were more detrimental to household vulnerability. The analysis suggests that poverty-reducing interventions should prioritise consumption growth while stimulating the stabilisation of household expenditure.