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Climate change impacts and household resilience: Prospects for 2050 in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru


  • Andersen, Lykke E.
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Jemio, Luis Carlos
  • Mason-D’Croz, Daniel
  • Ringler, Claudia
  • Robertson, Richard D.
  • Verner, Dorte
  • Wiebelt, Manfred


This food policy report is a response to growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on Latin American economies, agriculture, and people. It assesses both local and global effects of changing agricultural yields on the economy, subnational regions, and different household types, including male- and female-headed households in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. The three countries reflect economic and geographic diversity in Latin America and more than half of the region’s population. Climate change impacts tend to be relatively small at an economywide level in all three countries. However, sectoral and household-level economic impacts tend to be diverse across countries and subnational levels. They mainly depend on projected changes in agricultural yields, the share of agriculture in regional gross domestic product (GDP), crop-specific international trade balances, net food buyer/seller position, and income diversification of households. As for gender, results from this study suggest that female-headed households may be less vulnerable than male-headed households to the effects of climate change, highlighting the importance of considering women as a source for solutions for building resilience to climate change. Given the relatively small impacts of climate change and the degree of uncertainty associated with them, it is too early to define specific policy recommendations. All three countries should try to maximize the benefits that may come with higher agricultural world market prices and to minimize the losses from reductions in agricultural yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersen, Lykke E. & Breisinger, Clemens & Jemio, Luis Carlos & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Verner, Dorte & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2016. "Climate change impacts and household resilience: Prospects for 2050 in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru," Food policy reports 978-0-89629-581-0, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:fprepo:9780896295810

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer, 2013. "Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 77-89.
    2. Manfred Wiebelt & Perrihan Al-Riffai & Clemens Breisinger & Richard Robertson, 2015. "Who bears the costs of climate change? evidence from Tunisia," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(2), pages 1-21, April-Jun.
    3. Dorte Verner & Clemens Breisinger, 2013. "Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World : Case Studies from the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13124, December.
    4. Dorte Verner, 2012. "Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries : A Case for Adaptation Governance and Leadership in Building Climate Resilience," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 12216, December.
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