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Who bears the costs of climate change? Evidence from Tunisia

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  • Wiebelt, Manfred
  • Al-Riffai, Perrihan
  • Breisinger, Clemens
  • Robertson, Richard

Abstract

In order to estimate the economic costs of climate change for Tunisia, this paper uses a combination of biophysical and economic models. In addition, the paper draws on the literature to complement the quantitative analysis with policy recommendations on how to adapt to the changing climate. The results bear out the expectation that climate change has a negative but weak overall effect on the Tunisian economy. Decomposing the global and local effects shows that global climate change may benefit the agricultural sector since higher world market prices for agricultural commodities are likely to stimulate export expansion and import substitution. Locally felt climate change, however, is likely to hurt the agricultural sector as lower yields reduce factor productivities lead to lower incomes and higher food prices. The combined local and global effects are projected to be mostly negative and the costs will have to be carried mainly by urban and richer households. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that Tunisia should try to maximize the benefits from rising global agricultural prices and to minimize (or reverse) declining crop yields at home.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiebelt, Manfred & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Breisinger, Clemens & Robertson, Richard, 2014. "Who bears the costs of climate change? Evidence from Tunisia," Kiel Working Papers 1952, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1952
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andersen, Lykke E. & Breisinger, Clemens & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Jemio, Luis Carlos & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Verner, Dorte & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2014. "Agriculture, incomes, and gender in Latin America by 2050: An assessment of climate change impacts and household resilience for Brazil, Mexico, and Peru:," IFPRI discussion papers 1390, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Wiebelt, Manfred & Breisinger, Clemens & Ecker, Olivier & Al-Riffai, Perrihan & Robertson, Richard & Thiele, Rainer, 2013. "Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 77-89.
    3. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Clemens Breisinger & Tingju Zhu & Perrihan Al Riffai & Gerald Nelson & Richard Robertson & Jose Funes & Dorte Verner, 2013. "Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Syria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-30.
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    Cited by:

    1. Siddig, Khalid & Stepanyan, Davit & Wiebelt, Manfred & Grethe, Harald & Zhu, Tingju, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Andersen, Lykke E. & Breisinger, Clemens & Jemio, Luis Carlos & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Verner, Dorte & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2016. "Climate change impacts and household resilience: Prospects for 2050 in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru," Food policy reports 978-0-89629-581-0, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Andersen, Lykke E. & Breisinger, Clemens & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Jemio, Luis Carlos & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Verner, Dorte & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2014. "Agriculture, incomes, and gender in Latin America by 2050: An assessment of climate change impacts and household resilience for Brazil, Mexico, and Peru:," IFPRI discussion papers 1390, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; agricultural growth; distribution; general equilibrium analysis; Tunisia; Middle East and North Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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