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The impact of armed conflict on economic performance: Evidence from Rwanda

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  • Pieter Serneels
  • Marijke Verpoorten

Abstract

Important gaps remain in the understanding of the economic consequences of civil war. Focusing on the conflict in Rwanda in the early 90s, and using micro data to carry out econometric analysis, this paper finds that households and localities that experienced more intense conflict are lagging behind in terms of consumption six years after the conflict, a finding that is robust to taking into account the endogeneity of violence. Significantly different returns to land and labour are observed between zones that experienced low and high intensity conflict which is consistent with on-going recovery. Distinguishing between civil war and genocide, the findings also provide evidence that these returns, and by implication the process of recovery, depend on the form of violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Pieter Serneels & Marijke Verpoorten, 2012. "The impact of armed conflict on economic performance: Evidence from Rwanda," CSAE Working Paper Series 2012-10, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2012-10
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    Cited by:

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    2. Guariso Andrea & Verpoorten Marijke, 2019. "Armed Conflict and Schooling in Rwanda: Digging Deeper," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-40, February.
    3. Giulia La Mattina, 2014. "Civil Conflict, Sex Ratio and Intimate Partner Violence in Rwanda," Working Papers 0114, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    4. He Yin & Van Butsic & Johanna Buchner & Tobias Kuemmerle & Alexander V. Prishchepov & Matthias Baumann & Eugenia V. Bragina & Hovik Sayadyan & Volker C. Radeloff, 2019. "Agricultural abandonment and recultivation during and after the Chechen Wars in the northern Caucasus," HiCN Working Papers 294, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Thorbecke, Erik, 2014. "The structural anatomy and institutional architecture of inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 041, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Erik Thorbecke, 2014. "The Structural Anatomy and Institutional Architecture of Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-041, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Hoenig, Tillman, 2018. "The Effect of Conflict on Education: Evidence from Sierra Leone," MPRA Paper 85064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bove, Vincenzo & Gavrilova, Evelina, 2014. "Income and Livelihoods in the War in Afghanistan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 113-131.
    9. Hönig, Tillman, 2017. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 83302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Andrea Guariso & Marijke Verpoorten, 2018. "Aid, trade and the post-war recovery of the Rwandan coffee sector," Journal of Eastern African Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 552-574, July.
    11. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    12. Giulia La Mattina, 2014. "Civil Conflict, Sex Ratio and Intimate Partner Violence in Rwanda," HiCN Working Papers 175, Households in Conflict Network.
    13. Ingelaere, Bert & Verpoorten, Marijke, 2016. "Inter-ethnic trust in the aftermath of mass violence: insights from large-N life histories," IOB Working Papers 2016.03, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    14. Gardeazabal, Javier & Vega Bayo, Ainhoa, 2016. "The Economic Cost of Armed Conflict," DFAEII Working Papers info:eu-repo/grantAgreeme, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    15. McDougal, Topher L., 2017. "The Political Economy of Rural-Urban Conflict: Predation, Production, and Peripheries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198792598, Decembrie.
    16. Merle Kreibaum, 2014. "Their Suffering, Our Burden? How Congolese Refugees Affect the Ugandan Population," HiCN Working Papers 181, Households in Conflict Network.
    17. D'Souza, Anna, 2014. "Conflict and Trade: Implications for Agriculture and Food Security," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197200, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    18. Giacomo De Luca & Marijke Verpoorten, 2011. "From vice to virtue? Civil war and social capital in Uganda," LICOS Discussion Papers 29811, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    19. Ana María Ibáñez & Julián Arteaga & Juan Camilo Cárdenas & Ana Arjona & Patricia Justino, 2019. "The effects of wartime institutions on households' ability to cope with shocks: Evidence for Colombia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Jorge Alvis Arrieta & Cristina Hidalgo González & María del Pilar Rodríguez Fernández, 2017. "Conflicto, posconflicto y capacidades de los gobiernos municipales en Colombia, 2002 - 2012," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 11(2), pages 249-285, December.
    21. Marijke Verpoorten, 2014. "Growth, poverty and inequality in Rwanda: a broad perspective," Working Papers of LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance 490896, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    civil war; economic growth; Rwanda; human capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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