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Agricultural Production Amid Conflict: Separating the Effects of Conflict into Shocks and Uncertainty

Author

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  • María Alejandra Arias

    (University of Chicago)

  • Ana María Ibáñez

    (Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia)

  • Andres Zambrano

    (Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia)

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter-temporal model of agricultural production is developed in which the impact of conflict is transmitted through violent shocks and uncertainty brought about by conflict. We test the model using a unique household survey applied to 4,800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. Our findings suggest households learn to live amid conflict, albeit at a lower income trajectory. When presence of non-state armed actors prolongs, farmers shift to activities with short-term yields and lower profitability from activities that require high investments. If violence intensifies in regions with presence of non-state armed actors, farmers concentrate on subsistence activities.

Suggested Citation

  • María Alejandra Arias & Ana María Ibáñez & Andres Zambrano, 2017. "Agricultural Production Amid Conflict: Separating the Effects of Conflict into Shocks and Uncertainty," HiCN Working Papers 245, Households in Conflict Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:245
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolás de Roux & Luis Roberto Martínez, 2021. "Forgone Investment: Civil Conflict and Agricultural Credit in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 019236, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    2. Philip Verwimp & Patricia Justino & Tilman Brück, 2018. "The Microeconomics of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 280, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    4. Mercier, Marion & Ngenzebuke, Rama Lionel & Verwimp, Philip, 2020. "Violence exposure and poverty: Evidence from the Burundi civil war," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 822-840.
    5. Justin George & Adesoji Adelaja & Dave Weatherspoon, 2020. "Armed Conflicts and Food Insecurity: Evidence from Boko Haram's Attacks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 114-131, January.
    6. Edmond Noubissi & Henri Njangang, 2020. "The impact of terrorism on agriculture in African countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 730-743, December.
    7. Avuwadah, Benjamin Y. & Kropp, Jaclyn D. & Mullally, Conner C. & Morgan, Stephen N., 2020. "Heterogenous effects of conflict on agricultural production patterns: Evidence from Nigeria," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304417, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Czudaj Robert L., 2020. "The role of uncertainty on agricultural futures markets momentum trading and volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-39, June.
    9. German Orbegozo, 2021. "Consequences of violence against social leaders in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 019320, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    10. Verme, Paolo & Gigliarano, Chiara, 2019. "Optimal targeting under budget constraints in a humanitarian context," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 224-233.
    11. Kirschner, Shanna A. & Finaret, Amelia B., 2021. "Conflict and health: Building on the role of infrastructure," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    12. Adesoji Adelaja & Justin George & Louise Fox & Keith Fuglie & Thomas Jayne, 2021. "Shocks, Resilience and Structural Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Augustin Tapsoba, 2018. "The Cost of Fear: Impact of Violence Risk on Child Health During Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 279, Households in Conflict Network.
    14. Adong, Annet & Kornher, Lukas & Kiptoo Kirui, Oliver & von Braun, Joachim, 2021. "Conflict exposure and food consumption pathways during and after conflict: Evidence from Northern Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Umar Shuaibu Aliyu & Huseyin Ozdeser & Behiye Çavuşoğlu & Mohammed A. M. Usman, 2021. "Food Security Sustainability: A Synthesis of the Current Concepts and Empirical Approaches for Meeting SDGs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-25, October.
    16. Nicolás de Roux & Luis Martínez, 2021. "Inversión Perdida: Conflicto Civil y Crédito Agrícola en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 019622, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    17. Appau, Samuelson & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2021. "The long-term impact of the Vietnam War on agricultural productivity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Ziv Bar-Nahum & Israel Finkelshtain & Rico Ihle & Ofir D. Rubin, 2020. "Effects of violent political conflict on the supply, demand and fragmentation of fresh food markets," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(3), pages 503-515, June.
    19. Ana María Ibáñez & Julián Arteaga & Juan Camilo Cárdenas & Ana Arjona & Patricia Justino, 2019. "The effects of wartime institutions on households' ability to cope with shocks: Evidence for Colombia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; uncertainty; agricultural production; small-farmers; developing economies JEL Classification: D13; D74; Q1;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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