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Agricultural Production Amid Conflict: Separating the Effects of Conflict into Shocks and Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • María Alejandra Arias

    (University of Chicago)

  • Ana María Ibáñez

    (Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia)

  • Andres Zambrano

    (Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia)

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter-temporal model of agricultural production is developed in which the impact of conflict is transmitted through violent shocks and uncertainty brought about by conflict. We test the model using a unique household survey applied to 4,800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. Our findings suggest households learn to live amid conflict, albeit at a lower income trajectory. When presence of non-state armed actors prolongs, farmers shift to activities with short-term yields and lower profitability from activities that require high investments. If violence intensifies in regions with presence of non-state armed actors, farmers concentrate on subsistence activities.

Suggested Citation

  • María Alejandra Arias & Ana María Ibáñez & Andres Zambrano, 2017. "Agricultural Production Amid Conflict: Separating the Effects of Conflict into Shocks and Uncertainty," HiCN Working Papers 245, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:245
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; uncertainty; agricultural production; small-farmers; developing economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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