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Agricultural Production Amid Conflict: The Effects of Shocks, Uncertainty, and Governance of Non-State Armed Actors

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  • María Alejandra Arias

    ()

  • Ana María Ibáñez

    ()

  • Andrés Zambrano

    ()

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter-temporal model of agricultural production is developed, in which the impact of conflict is transmitted through two channels: violent shocks and uncertainty brought about by conflict. The model shows how conflict induces sub-optimal agricultural decisions in terms of land use and investment. We test the model using a unique household survey applied to 4,800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. The survey collects detailed information on household economic conditions, incidence of violent shocks, and the presence of non-state armed actors. The results show that conflict affects agricultural production through different channels. In regions with intense conflict, households reduce the amount of land allocated to perennial crops, increase production of seasonal crops and pasture, and cut back investments. Households seem to learn to live amid conflict. Recent presence of non-state armed actors induces farmers strongly to cut back land use for perennial crops, pasture, and investments. As presence is more prolonged, farmers increase land use for perennial crops and pasture, and investments rebound. However, total agricultural production may be lower because shocks and presence result in more land being idle. Households habituate to conflict, yet at a lower equilibrium.

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  • María Alejandra Arias & Ana María Ibáñez & Andrés Zambrano, 2014. "Agricultural Production Amid Conflict: The Effects of Shocks, Uncertainty, and Governance of Non-State Armed Actors," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 011005, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:011005
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul, Saumik & Shonchoy, Abu S. & Dabalen, Andrew, 2015. "Food crop diversification as a risk mitigating strategy during conflict : evidence from Cote d'Ivoire," IDE Discussion Papers 496, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Verteramo Chiu, Leslie J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2015. "Perception and Action in a Conflict Zone: a Study of Rural Economy and Rural Life amidst Narcos in Northeastern Mexico," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205447, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Lemus Natalia, 2014. "Conflict-Induced Poverty: Evidence from Colombia," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 113-142, January.
    4. Bageant, Elizabeth & Liu, Yanyan & Diao, Xinshen, 2016. "Agriculture-nutrition linkages and child health in the presence of conflict in Nepal:," IFPRI discussion papers 1515, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; uncertainty; agricultural production; small-farmers; developing economies;

    JEL classification:

    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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