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The Cost of Fear : Impact of Violence Risk on Child Health During Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Augustin Tapsoba

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

The fear of exposure to conflict events often triggers changes in the behavior of eco-nomic agents even before/without any manifestation of violence in a given area. It gen-erates a treatment status (exposure to the adverse e˙ects of conflict) that goes beyond violence incidence. This paper develops a new approach to capture such treatment. Violence is modeled as a space-time stochastic process with an unknown underlying distribution that is backed out of the observed pattern of conflict events. A new risk measure is built from this density and used to evaluate the impact of conflict on child health using data from Ivory Coast and Uganda. The empirical evidence suggests that conflict is a local public bad, with cohorts of children exposed to high risk of violence equally su˙ering major health setbacks even when this risk does not materialize in violent events around them.

Suggested Citation

  • Augustin Tapsoba, 2023. "The Cost of Fear : Impact of Violence Risk on Child Health During Conflict," Post-Print hal-05514692, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05514692
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102975
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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Besley & Thiemo Fetzer & Hannes Mueller, 2023. "How Big Is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10619, CESifo.
    2. Lusine Ivanov-Davtyan, 2024. "Education Under Attack? The Impact of a Localized War on Schooling Achievements," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp784, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. Alberto Ciancio & Camilo Garcia-Jimeno, 2026. "Anticipating State Action: Risk Perceptions and Consumption under Immigration Enforcement," Working Papers 2026_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Roland Pongou, 2020. "Is Excess (Fe)Male Mortality Caused by the Prenatal Environment, Child Biology, or Parental Discrimination? New Evidence from Male-Female Twins," Working Papers 2008E Classification-I15,, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    5. Relwendé Apollinaire Nikiema & Wendata A. Kafando, 2025. "Impact of Terrorist Violence on Child Health in Burkina Faso: Unpacking Potential Mechanisms," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(S1), pages 1292-1309, November.
    6. repec:cam:camjip:2520 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Conte, Bruno & Piemontese, Lavinia & Tapsoba, Augustin, 2023. "The power of markets: Impact of desert locust invasions on child health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. Joan Margalef & Hannes Mueller, 2023. "Caught in a Trap: Simulating the Economic Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict," Working Papers 1402, Barcelona School of Economics.
    9. Richard, Marion & Vanden Eynde, Oliver, 2023. "Cooperation between National Armies: Evidence from the Sahel borders," CEPR Discussion Papers 18674, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Marion Richard & Oliver Vanden Eynde, 2025. "Cooperation between National Armies: Evidence from the Sahel borders," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp2507, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    11. Sophie Brochet & Hannes Mueller & Christopher Rauh, 2025. "Uncovering Economic Policy Uncertainty During Conflict," Working Papers 1503, Barcelona School of Economics.
    12. Ai, Hongshan & Tan, Xiaoqing, 2025. "The impact of exposure to pipeline gas connection during pregnancy on child development: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Schaub, Max, 2024. "Violent conflict and the demand for healthcare: How armed conflict reduces trust, instills fear, and increases child mortality," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    14. Mueller,Hannes Felix & Techasunthornwat,Chanon, 2020. "Conflict and Poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9455, The World Bank.
    15. Bove, Vincenzo & Di Salvatore, Jessica & Elia, Leandro & Nisticò, Roberto, 2024. "Mothers at peace: International peacebuilding and post-conflict fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    16. Ahsan, Md Nazmul & Thakur, Sounak, 2024. "The great Indian demonetization and gender gap in health outcomes: Evidence from two Indian states," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    17. Augustin TAPSOBA, 2022. "Conflict prediction using Kernel density estimation," Working Paper 258fc89a-4ec3-4eef-a0ff-7, Agence française de développement.
    18. Thiemo Fetzer & Pedro C. L. Souza & Oliver Vanden Eynde & Austin L. Wright, 2021. "Security Transitions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(7), pages 2275-2308, July.
    19. Schaub, Max, 2024. "Violent conflict and the demand for healthcare: How armed conflict reduces trust, instills fear, and increases child mortality," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 359, pages 1-10.
    20. repec:osf:osfxxx:q59dr_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Bai Yu & Guojun He & Pak Hung Lam & Yanjun Li, 2026. "Sophie and the locust curse: Effects of locust plague on human capital accumulation," TUPD Discussion Papers 80, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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