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Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Alfano
  • Thomas Cornelissen

Abstract

Conflict along transportation routes during Somalia's al-Shabaab insurgency significantly increases maize prices at distant locations, decreasing food security, health, and education. Estimated conflict risk has strong price effects independently of realized conflict, highlighting the importance of safety concerns. A model of least-cost route choice in the presence of conflict reveals that more and shorter alternative routes to circumvent conflict can lower prices but their effectiveness diminishes as violence becomes more correlated across routes. Alternatively, securing key transportation routes would alleviate price increases. A market access approach suggests spatial spillovers of conflict also matter for prices of more general baskets of food and nonfood items.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Alfano & Thomas Cornelissen, 2026. "Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 116(6), pages 2166-2201, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:116:y:2026:i:6:p:2166-2201
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231699
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abel Brodeur, 2018. "The Effect of Terrorism on Employment and Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 246-282, October.
    2. Christ, Nannette & Ferrantino, Michael J., 2011. "Land Transport for Export: The Effects of Cost, Time, and Uncertainty in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 1749-1759.
    3. Tapsoba, Augustin, 2023. "The cost of fear: Impact of violence risk on child health during conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 55-87, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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