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Economic Development in the Shadow of War

Author

Listed:
  • Marcel Schlepper
  • Timo Wochner

Abstract

This paper provides causal evidence that the mere risk of war — absent actual conflict — imposes substantial economic costs. Our setting exploits NATO's Cold War defense line against a potential Soviet invasion, which created a geographic discontinuity in war risk within West Germany. A leak of classified defense plans in 1977 made this discontinuity salient to the public. We show that war risk distorted firm behavior on the exposed side of the defense line: firm entry declined, and incumbent firms reduced investment. These responses caused persistent regional divergence. Decades after the Cold War ended, incomes remain significantly lower in areas once exposed to higher war risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Schlepper & Timo Wochner, 2026. "Economic Development in the Shadow of War," CESifo Working Paper Series 12915, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12915
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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