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Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run

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Abstract

During recent immigration waves, nationalist parties increased their vote shares in many countries, but the political backlash against immigration in some regions was much stronger than in others. We examine whether past experience with migrant inflows shapes voters' reactions to current immigration waves. Our study is based on a natural experiment from Germany, where a short-term and demonstrably arbitrary drawing of occupation zones entailed a discontinuous distribution of forced migrants after World War II. Combining historical migration and election records in a 1949-2021 panel at the municipality level, we exploit these differences in a spatial fuzzy regression discontinuity design. Our results show a substantially weaker nationalist backlash against current immigration in regions that received more forced migrants in the past. Current immigration levels activate and mute this effect of exposure to immigration in the past over a period of at least 70 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Lang & Stephan A. Schneider, 2022. "Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run," KOF Working papers 22-505, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:22-505
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000569180
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jean Lacroix & Ricardo Piqué, 2025. "Des nôtres? The Political Effects of Hosting Internal Evacuees," CESifo Working Paper Series 12314, CESifo.
    3. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Stefanie Stantcheva & Johannes Wohlfart, 2024. "Measuring What Is Top of Mind," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 298, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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