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Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes

Author

Listed:
  • Link, Sebastian

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

  • Menkhoff, Manuel

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

  • Peichl, Andreas

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)

  • Schüle, Paul

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper estimates the causal effect of corporate tax hikes on firm investment based on more than 1,400 local tax changes. By observing planned and realized investment volumes in a representative sample of German manufacturing firms, we can study how tax hikes induce firms to revise their investment decisions. On average, the share of firms that invest less than previously planned increases by three percentage points after a tax hike. This effect is twice as large during recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Link, Sebastian & Menkhoff, Manuel & Peichl, Andreas & Schüle, Paul, 2023. "Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes," IZA Discussion Papers 16056, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16056
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2018. "Do Higher Corporate Taxes Reduce Wages? Micro Evidence from Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 393-418, February.
    2. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Zorn, Peter, 2020. "What drives aggregate investment? Evidence from German survey data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    4. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Andreas Peichl & Paul Schüle, 2022. "Corporate Taxes Reduce Investment: New Evidence from Germany," EconPol Policy Brief 44, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; corporate taxation; state dependence; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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