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Can External Threats Foster a European Union Identity? Evidence from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

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  • Kai Gehring

Abstract

Can external threats strengthen group identity? A growing body of research in economics emphasises the importance of cultural attributes such as identity for trust and cooperation. However, where these attributes come from is not well understood. This paper examines reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, looking at European Union member states. Comparing low-threat to high-threat states in a difference-in-differences design, I find a sizeable and persistent positive effect on EU identity. It is associated with higher trust in EU institutions and support for common policies. Lower-level identities remain unaffected, and proximity to Russia and Russian minority size are driving high-threat status.

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  • Kai Gehring, 2022. "Can External Threats Foster a European Union Identity? Evidence from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1489-1516.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:132:y:2022:i:644:p:1489-1516.
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    3. Grillo, Edoardo & Nicolò, Antonio, 2025. "Learning the hard way: Conflicts, sanctions and military aid," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
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    7. Beetsma, Roel & Burgoon, Brian & Nicoli, Francesco, 2023. "Is european attachment sufficiently strong to support an EU fiscal capacity: Evidence from a conjoint experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Nils D. Steiner & Ruxanda Berlinschi & Etienne Farvaque & Jan Fidrmuc & Philipp Harms & Alexander Mihailov & Michael Neugart & Piotr Stanek, 2023. "Rallying around the EU flag: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attitudes toward European integration," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 283-301, March.
    9. Matthias Mader & Moritz Neubert & Felix Münchow & Stephanie C Hofmann & Harald Schoen & Konstantin Gavras, 2024. "Crumbling in the face of cost? How cost considerations affect public support for European security and defence cooperation," European Union Politics, , vol. 25(3), pages 483-503, September.
    10. Jerg Gutmann & Hans Pitlik & Andrea Fronaschütz, 2023. "Has the Russian invasion of Ukraine reinforced anti-globalization sentiment in Austria?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 289-299, May.
    11. Liesbet Hooghe & Gary Marks & Ryan Bakker & Seth Jolly & Jonathan Polk & Jan Rovny & Marco Steenbergen & Milada Anna Vachudova, 2024. "The Russian threat and the consolidation of the West: How populism and EU-skepticism shape party support for Ukraine," European Union Politics, , vol. 25(3), pages 459-482, September.
    12. Marco Garofalo & Giovanni Rosso & Roger Vicquéry, 2025. "Sanctions and Currencies in Global Credit," Economics Series Working Papers 1079, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Elizabeth Brainerd & Olga Malkova, 2023. "Maternity benefits and marital stability after birth: evidence from the Soviet Baltic republics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2309-2345, October.
    14. Hong, Justin Jihao & Lyu, Yuhan, 2025. "Not always a Panacea: History education and identity-building in Taiwan," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    15. Brainerd, Elizabeth & Malkova, Olga, 2025. "How Religion Mediates the Fertility Response to Maternity Benefits," IZA Discussion Papers 18081, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Kai Gehring & Joop Age Harm Adema & Panu Poutvaara, 2022. "Immigrant Narratives," CESifo Working Paper Series 10026, CESifo.
    17. Hamjediers, Maik, 2025. "A Threat Next Door? Causal Evidence that Russia's Invasion Increased Willingness to Fight in the Czech Republic but Not in Uruguay," SocArXiv p6xf4_v1, Center for Open Science.
    18. Gleue, Marvin & Harrs, Sören & Feldhaus, Christoph & Löschel, Andreas, 2024. "Identity and voluntary efforts for climate protection," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 436-476.
    19. Nils Steiner & Ruxanda Berlinschi & Etienne Farvaque & Jan Fidrmuc & Philipp Harms & Alexander Mihailov & Michael Neugart & Piotr Stanek, 2022. "Rallying around the EU Flag: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Attitudes toward European Integration," CESifo Working Paper Series 9883, CESifo.

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