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Exogenous Shocks and Electoral Outcomes: Re-examining the Rational Voter Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Kaustav Das

    (University of Leicester)

  • Atisha Ghosh

    (University of Warwick)

  • Pushkar Maitra

    (Monash University)

Abstract

Voters are assumed to be irrational if they respond to shocks beyond the control of politicians. What if the politicians can respond to such shocks? Using a theoretical model, where shocks can either be responsive (allowing politicians to respond) or nonresponsive, we show that voters are irrational if non-responsive shocks affect electoral outcomes. We test this using data from the 1991 Indian parliamentary elections. In the middle of the election, the leader of the opposition was assassinated. We find that this affected the electoral outcomes indicating irrationality on the part of Indian voters.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaustav Das & Atisha Ghosh & Pushkar Maitra, 2021. "Exogenous Shocks and Electoral Outcomes: Re-examining the Rational Voter Hypothesis," Monash Economics Working Papers 2021-13, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2021-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Voter rationality; Responsive shock; Non-Responsive Shock; Election Outcomes.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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