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Election or Disaster Support?

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  • Jeroen Klomp

Abstract

In this study, I explore whether the public spending provided in response to a natural disaster is affected by upcoming elections. The theory on retrospective voting argues that politicians are kept responsible by the electorate for the damage caused by a natural catastrophe. At the same time, voters reward government officials when they react promptly by taking actions that limit the negative consequences. Thus, disaster support in the aftermath might not always only be provided to improve the economic situation after a disaster, but also for political purposes. My estimates seem to confirm this idea since roughly 10 per cent of the disaster related public spending provided in an election year is attributed to rent seeking rather than need. It turns out that the existence of these election cycles can partly be explained by cross-country differences. For instance, elections have a stronger effect in countries that are characterised by fewer checks and balances, presidential system and majority elections. One interesting result is that the role of media in electoral manipulation changes when a disaster has happened in the year before.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Election or Disaster Support?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 205-220, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:56:y:2020:i:1:p:205-220
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2019.1585811
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    1. David Strömberg, 2007. "Natural Disasters, Economic Development, and Humanitarian Aid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 199-222, Summer.
    2. Russell Sobel & Peter Leeson, 2006. "Government's response to Hurricane Katrina: A public choice analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 55-73, April.
    3. David Strömberg, 2004. "Radio's Impact on Public Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 189-221.
    4. repec:bla:rdevec:v:6:y:2002:i:2:p:204-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Thomas A. Garrett & Russell S. Sobel, 2003. "The Political Economy of FEMA Disaster Payments," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 496-509, July.
    6. Nicola Persico & Alessandro Lizzeri, 2001. "The Provision of Public Goods under Alternative Electoral Incentives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 225-239, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bashar, Omar & Mallick, Debdulal, 2021. "Frequency of Shocks, Resilience and Shock Persistence: Evidence from Natural Disasters," MPRA Paper 107517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kaustav Das & Atisha Ghosh & Pushkar Maitra, 2021. "Exogenous Shocks and Electoral Outcomes: Re-examining the Rational Voter Hypothesis," Monash Economics Working Papers 2021-13, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    3. Carla Morvan & Sonia Paty, 2024. "Natural disasters and voter gratitude: What is the role of prevention policies?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(3), pages 427-465, March.
    4. Michael Lokshin & Aylén Rodriguez‐Ferrari & Iván Torre, 2024. "Electoral cycles and public spending during the pandemic," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 1077-1107, August.
    5. Yashobanta Parida & Joyita Roy Chowdhury, 2025. "Effects of election and natural disaster mortality on calamity relief spending in India," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 93-138, March.
    6. Jaap W.B. Bos & Jasmin Gröschl & Martien Lamers & Runliang Li & Mark Sanders & Vincent Schippers & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2022. "How Do Institutions Affect the Impact of Natural Disasters?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10174, CESifo.
    7. Thomas Husted & David Nickerson, 2022. "Governors and electoral hazard in the allocation of federal disaster aid," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(2), pages 522-539, October.
    8. Kaustav Das & Atisha Ghosh & Pushkar Maitra, 2024. "Exogenous shocks and electoral outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 201(1), pages 145-179, October.

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