Electoral Misgovernance Cycles: Evidence from wildfires and tax evasion in Greece and elsewhere
We present detailed empirical evidence that around Greek elections, misgovernance results in significant increases in wildfires and tax evasion and with important economic implications: the cumulative cost of these effects in recent years has been over 8% of GDP and has therefore been a contributing factor to Greece’s debt crisis and any effect this has had on the global economy. We interpret this evidence as a type of misgovernance which arises from electoral cycles in two types of incumbent incentives: (i) to allocate effort or attention between governing vs. campaigning; and/or (ii) to adopt even very inefficient redistributive policies if they benefit special interests with a lead over when the costs are observed. While these incentives may manifest differently among countries, our analysis suggests that electoral cycles everywhere may be much more multifaceted and harmful than previous literature suggests.
|Date of creation:||May 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/research/hellenicObservatory/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
- Andrew Dyke, 2007. "Electoral cycles in the administration of criminal justice," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 417-437, December.
- Poterba, James M, 1994.
"State Responses to Fiscal Crises: The Effects of Budgetary Institutions and Politics,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 799-821, August.
- James M. Poterba, 1993. "State Responses to Fiscal Crisis: The Effects of Budgetary Institutionsand Politics," NBER Working Papers 4375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2004.
"Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting,"
Economics Working Papers
0047, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
- Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2004. "Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in A Young Democracy Setting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1301-1338, November.
- Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2003. "Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting," Working Papers w0024, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990.
"Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
- Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2012.
"Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures,"
Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 295-327, December.
- Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2010. "Political Budget Cycles in the European Union and the Impact of Political Pressures: A dynamic panel regression analysis," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1002, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Christodoulakis, Nicos M, 1994. "Tax Collection Lags and the Revenue-Maximising Inflation: The Case of Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 329-42.
- Thomas A. Garrett & Russell S. Sobel, 2002.
"The political economy of FEMA disaster payments,"
2002-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Russell S. Sobel & Christopher Coyne & Peter Leeson, 2009. "The Political Economy of FEMA: Did Reorganization Matter?," Working Papers 09-10, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
- Monica Escaleras & Nejat Anbarci & Charles Register, 2007. "Public sector corruption and major earthquakes: A potentially deadly interaction," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 209-230, July.
- Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, June.
- Peter T. Leeson & Russell S. Sobel, 2008.
Journal of Law and Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 667-681, November.
- William Shughart, 2006. "Katrinanomics: The politics and economics of disaster relief," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 31-53, April.
- Levitt, Steven D & Snyder, James M, Jr, 1997.
"The Impact of Federal Spending on House Election Outcomes,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 30-53, February.
- Steven D. Levitt & James M. Snyder, Jr., 1995. "The Impact of Federal Spending on House Election Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 5002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ray C. Fair, 1976.
"The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
- Lucas Ronconi, 2010. "Enforcement and Compliance with Labor Regulations," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 63(4), pages 719-736, July.
- Mechtel, Mario & Potrafke, Niklas, 2013.
"Electoral cycles in active labor market policies,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
19249, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Mario Mechtel & Niklas Potrafke, 2011. "Electoral Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-39, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Mechtel, Mario & Potrafke, Niklas, 2011. "Electoral Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
- Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005.
"Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
- Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2004. "Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies," NBER Working Papers 10539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven D. Levitt, 1995.
"Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Policeon Crime,"
NBER Working Papers
4991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Levitt, Steven D, 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 270-90, June.
- Russell Sobel & Peter Leeson, 2006. "Government's response to Hurricane Katrina: A public choice analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 55-73, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hel:greese:47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vassilis Monastiriotis)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.