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Natural disasters and voter gratitude: What is the role of prevention policies?

Author

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  • Carla Morvan

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Sonia Paty

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - EM - EMLyon Business School - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Natural disasters and related prevention policies can affect voter decisions. In this study, we analyze how the occurrence of natural disasters changes voters' behavior at municipal elections and how prevention policies can mitigate the impact of such catastrophic events on budget accounts and might potentially be rewarded by citizens in upcoming elections. We exploit original data on French municipalities where incumbents sought reelection between 2008 and 2020. To estimate the probability of re-election at the municipal level in the event of a natural disaster we apply a Heckman model based strategy to avoid selection bias. We find that the occurrence of natural disasters significantly decreases the chances of reelection of incumbent mayors. However, although we show that natural hazard prevention plans significantly mitigate the impact of catastrophic events on budget accounts, citizens do not reward such prevention policies in upcoming elections. We confirm the hypothesis of myopia: voters reward incumbents for delivering investment spending or decreasing debt but not for investing in spending on disaster preparedness.

Suggested Citation

  • Carla Morvan & Sonia Paty, 2023. "Natural disasters and voter gratitude: What is the role of prevention policies?," Working Papers hal-04160167, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04160167
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04160167v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Alper Demirdogen & Emine Olhan, 2025. "Fifty-four thousand deaths, zero electoral impact," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 204(3), pages 329-354, September.
    2. Arin, K. Peren & Devereux, Kevin & Methorst, Joel & Thum, Marcel, 2025. "Flooding the vote: Heterogeneous voting responses to a natural disaster in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Livert, Felipe & Weaver, Julie Anne & Bordón, Paola, 2025. "Rewarding performance in disaster response: Evidence from local governments in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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