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Flooding the vote: Heterogeneous voting responses to a natural disaster in Germany

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  • Arin, K. Peren
  • Devereux, Kevin
  • Methorst, Joel
  • Thum, Marcel

Abstract

We present the first evidence of voter-level responses to a climatic disaster — the catastrophic German flooding of 2021, which serves as a natural experiment. Data on previous voting history reveals non-monotonic treatment effects: flood exposure increased the likelihood of voting for the Green Party by four to five percentage points among previous non-Green voters, but decreased future Green voting for previous Green voters. Tracking migration also reveals heterogeneity. Movers-out of flood zones responded more strongly; classifying them in the control group – as geographic panels do – attenuates the treatment effect. Both factors rationalize past findings of null or small effects, emphasizing the importance of microdata.

Suggested Citation

  • Arin, K. Peren & Devereux, Kevin & Methorst, Joel & Thum, Marcel, 2025. "Flooding the vote: Heterogeneous voting responses to a natural disaster in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:89:y:2025:i:c:s0176268025000540
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102694
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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